MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 19, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Kansas City Royals logo KC @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sun, Apr 19 • 1:35 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 1 Computer Pick
Spread
New York Yankees logo NYY -1.5 (+165)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Ryan Weathers doesn’t need to be perfect today — he just needs to be better than Cole Ragans, and that bar isn’t especially high. Ragans walks nearly 15% of the batters he faces, and the Kansas City Royals bullpen has been leaking runs, posting a 6.08 ERA with 1.55 home runs allowed per nine innings. The New York Yankees’ lineup is deep enough to capitalize. Ben Rice and Aaron Judge are barreling the ball at elite rates, while Trent Grisham works counts as well as anyone in the lineup. The moneyline price is solid, but the run line is where the real value lies.

 

Strikeouts Thrown
Cole Ragans logo
Cole Ragans u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-106)
Projection 6
Best Odds
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Cole Ragans has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting a 13.10 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.91 — a 2.19 K/9 discrepancy.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Sun, Apr 19 • 1:40 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Strikeouts Thrown
Trevor Rogers logo
Trevor Rogers u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+124)
Projection 4.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Trevor Rogers has utilized his slider 8.1% less often this season (11.1%) than he did last year (19.2%).. Among all SPs, Trevor Rogers's fastball velocity of 92 mph ranks in the 16th percentile this year.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Sun, Apr 19 • 1:40 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Strikeouts Thrown
Jacob Misiorowski logo
Jacob Misiorowski u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-124)
Projection 5.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jacob Misiorowski has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 8.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 14° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. Jacob Misiorowski's four-seam fastball percentage has increased by 6.2% from last year to this one (54.4% to 60.6%) .. Jacob Misiorowski has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 12.32 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.99 — a 1.33 K/9 disparity.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Sun, Apr 19 • 7:20 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Strikeouts Thrown
Grant Holmes logo
Grant Holmes o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160)
Projection 5.66
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Grant Holmes in the 76th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.. Grant Holmes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.. The #8 field in the league for boosting strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 5th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate.
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