MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 19, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Kansas City Royals logo KC @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sun, Apr 19 • 1:35 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 1 Computer Pick
Spread
New York Yankees logo NYY -1.5 (+165)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Ryan Weathers doesn’t need to be perfect today — he just needs to be better than Cole Ragans, and that bar isn’t especially high. Ragans walks nearly 15% of the batters he faces, and the Kansas City Royals bullpen has been leaking runs, posting a 6.08 ERA with 1.55 home runs allowed per nine innings. The New York Yankees’ lineup is deep enough to capitalize. Ben Rice and Aaron Judge are barreling the ball at elite rates, while Trent Grisham works counts as well as anyone in the lineup. The moneyline price is solid, but the run line is where the real value lies.

 

Strikeouts Thrown
Cole Ragans logo
Cole Ragans u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-106)
Projection 6
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Cole Ragans has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting a 13.10 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.91 — a 2.19 K/9 discrepancy.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Sun, Apr 19 • 1:40 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Strikeouts Thrown
Trevor Rogers logo
Trevor Rogers u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+128)
Projection 4.56
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. Trevor Rogers has utilized his slider 8.1% less often this season (11.1%) than he did last year (19.2%).. Among all SPs, Trevor Rogers's fastball velocity of 92 mph ranks in the 16th percentile this year.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Sun, Apr 19 • 3:10 PM ET
1 Computer Pick
Strikeouts Thrown
Michael Lorenzen logo
Michael Lorenzen u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-106)
Projection 3.29
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Michael Lorenzen in the 23rd percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the worst stadium in baseball for strikeouts.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which generally leads to more offense.. With a 0.79 deviation between Michael Lorenzen's 7.96 K/9 and his 7.17 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse in the future.. Michael Lorenzen has compiled a 15% K% since the start of last season, checking in at the 9th percentile.
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