MLB Picks

After hitting a solid 23 homers last season, Ian Happ has gotten off to a great start in 2026 with three dingers in seven games.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi was poor in his first game this season, giving up six hits, one homer, and six earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings. The right-hander allowed 24 homers in 23 starts last year.

Parker Messick shut out the Dodgers in his opening start and gets a Cubs offense that has scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five contests.

The Guardians’ sticks should get the best of Edward Cabrera and his history of command issues.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Miguel Rojas is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. Miguel Rojas has been pinch hit for 29% of the time when starting against a lefty hurler since the start of last season.. The #3 park in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Miguel Rojas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. The weather forecast expects the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.2-mph in this match-up, the 7th-best of the day for hitters.

Saturday was the day for the Marlins to get the Yankees. Ryan Weathers has now given up four of the seven runs allowed by Yankee starters this year. Even with his struggles, the starting rotation has turned in a 1.47 ERA.

Sunday’s starter, Max Fried, has not given up a run through two starts this season. He’s strung together 13 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 10 and allowing just five hits.  

The New York Yankees have been riding their pitching early this season. Miami scored seven runs in Saturday’s loss, which was just one more than the Yankees had given up in their first seven games combined. Even after giving up a seven-spot to the Miami Marlins, the Yankees’ staff ERA is just 1.77.

Walker Buehler is a proven veteran arm and is coming off a tough start, but Ranger Suarez is a gas can that the Padres' lineup can hammer for a solid road win.

Expect a bounce-back outing for Buehler and a Padres plus-money victory. 

10% of the time that Wilyer Abreu has started against a righty on the mound since the start of last season, he has been pulled from the game early.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. As it relates to his batting average, Wilyer Abreu has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .257 BA has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230.

Long-balls are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest in MLB.. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Marcell Ozuna will be at a massive disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today.. Putting up a lowly an 85.6-mph average exit velocity in the last week, Marcell Ozuna has been in a slump in recent games.. Posting a .232 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Marcell Ozuna finds himself in the 25th percentile.. In notching a .221 batting average since the start of last season, Marcell Ozuna is positioned in the 15th percentile.

Blaze Alexander is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.. Long-balls are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest in MLB.. Batting from the same side that Braxton Ashcraft throws from, Blaze Alexander encounters a tough challenge today.. Extreme groundball bats like Blaze Alexander tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.. Blaze Alexander will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of every team in action today.. Salvador Perez's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 24.4 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.26 ft/sec now.

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 38%.. Today, William Contreras is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (96th percentile).. William Contreras will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.. William Contreras's footspeed has decreased this season. His 26.17 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.07 ft/sec now.. William Contreras grades out in the 1st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (9.4% rate since the start of last season).

Nick Fortes's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. When starting against a northpaw since the start of last season, Nick Fortes has been pinch hit for 17% of the time.. The 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Target Field.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the 5th-lowest level of all games on the slate at 50°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kody Clemens is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Daulton Varsho is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 48°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Daulton Varsho in today's matchup.. In the last 7 days, Daulton Varsho has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Daulton Varsho is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 48°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Daulton Varsho in today's matchup.. In the last 7 days, Daulton Varsho has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 25% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 25% of the time.. Globe Life Field ranks as the #29 field in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Out of every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Hunter Goodman has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

When it comes to his home run skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Brenton Doyle has big-time HR ability (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

2025 was a year to forget for Yordan Alvarez, who hit just six dingers in 48 games due to a fracture in his hand. The Houston Astros slugger is finally back to full health, and he’s already gone yard three times in nine games.

Alvarez has been smashing the baseball with six extra-base hits, a .423 batting average, and an .885 slugging percentage.

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.5-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for hurlers.. Tyler Soderstrom hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Typically, batters like Tyler Soderstrom who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Lance McCullers Jr... In the last two weeks' worth of games, Tyler Soderstrom has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Tyler Soderstrom ranks in just the 13th percentile with a 8.7° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in MLB.

The league's tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Oracle Park.. Notching a lowly an 81.3-mph average exit velocity in the last week, Rafael Devers has been in a slump of late.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.348) provides evidence that Rafael Devers has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .363 actual wOBA.

The league's tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Oracle Park.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to less offense.. Kodai Senga will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Chapman today.. Matt Chapman has been cold recently, compiling a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Matt Chapman has not been doing well in optimizing the launch angle on his hardest hit balls to generate power, managing a mere a -0.5° angle.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.

When it comes to his home run ability, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-strongest of the day for bats.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 19° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 19° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 42°.. Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. Nolan Gorman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. This year, there has been a decline in Nolan Gorman's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 23.28 ft/sec currently.

Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 42°.. Kyle Leahy will have the handedness advantage against Gleyber Torres in today's matchup.. Gleyber Torres has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.. Gleyber Torres's speed has dropped off this year. His 26.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.67 ft/sec now.