Boston @ Toronto Picks & Props

Davis Schneider is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game. 70% of the time that Davis Schneider has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter. The #5 park in the majors for suppressing base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for pitching on the schedule today. Among every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an edge today. Nathaniel Lowe's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (23.5° over the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 12.7° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ceddanne Rafaela has had some very poor luck this year. His .300 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316.

Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Carlos Narvaez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 91.1-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Ernie Clement is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Ernie Clement will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage today.

Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Myles Straw will have the handedness advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Myles Straw will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. As it relates to his batting average, Myles Straw has experienced some negative variance this year. His .262 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .278. Myles Straw grades out in the 91st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (19% rate this year).

Jarren Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Max Scherzer today. Jarren Duran has put up a .330 BABIP this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average skill. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage today. Extreme groundball batters like Masataka Yoshida usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Romy Gonzalez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Romy Gonzalez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Scherzer. Romy Gonzalez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 93.3-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Alex Bregman hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, Alex Bregman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.5-mph over the course of the season to 96.6-mph recently. In the last two weeks, Alex Bregman has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 18.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 15.4°.

Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage in today's game. Daulton Varsho has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.4% rate last season to 17.4% this season. Last year, Daulton Varsho had an average launch angle of 14.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 19.9°. Daulton Varsho's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 20.5% on the season to 28% in the last two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), George Springer ranks as the 20th-best batter in the league. George Springer is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. George Springer will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. George Springer hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. George Springer will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Alejandro Kirk will have an advantage today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Alejandro Kirk will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 85th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Among all major league stadiums, Rogers Centre's CF fences are the 9th-shallowest. Over the past week, Trevor Story's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph lately. Trevor Story's footspeed has improved this year. His 28.07 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.58 ft/sec now.

Andres Gimenez has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Nate Eaton has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.