Baltimore @ San Diego Picks & Props

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (98% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Nestor Cortes. Dylan Carlson has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph mark. Last season, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 19.7° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 23.1°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Ryan O'Hearn will hold that advantage today. Ryan O'Hearn's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (21.4° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 14.7° seasonal angle.

Emmanuel Rivera has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Emmanuel Rivera will have the handedness advantage over Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Emmanuel Rivera's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 46.4% on the season to 55.6% in the last week's worth of games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) suggests that Emmanuel Rivera has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .241 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Colton Cowser has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.5% seasonal rate to 24% over the past 14 days. Over the past two weeks, Colton Cowser's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.6-mph in recent games. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Colton Cowser's 60% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today. In the past week's worth of games, Jake Cronenworth's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.9%. Placing in the 75th percentile, Jake Cronenworth sports a .345 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 20th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Gunnar Henderson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Using Statcast data, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 87th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .354. With a .287 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Gunnar Henderson has performed in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage today. Jackson Merrill has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .312 mark is considerably lower than his .352 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jackson Merrill has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 17° angle is among the highest in the league this year (88th percentile).

Freddy Fermin will have the handedness advantage over Cade Povich in today's game. Freddy Fermin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Freddy Fermin will hold that advantage today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr. will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the 3rd-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage today. Over the past 14 days, Luis Arraez's 56.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.4%.

Ryan Mountcastle's BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan Mountcastle is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Ryan Mountcastle will hold the platoon advantage over Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, Ryan Mountcastle's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.9-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph recently. In the past 14 days, Ryan Mountcastle's 60.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Jackson Holliday hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Jackson Holliday tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes. Jackson Holliday's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (13.8°) is considerably better than his 9.5° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Beavers in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Over the last 14 days, Dylan Beavers has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .388.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. In the past 7 days, Samuel Basallo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 93.8-mph recently. Samuel Basallo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 10.8% on the season to 30% in the last week.

Manny Machado's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Manny Machado will hold the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's game. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage today.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Elias Diaz will have the upper hand in today's game. Elias Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Elias Diaz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.7-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph figure. Elias Diaz's launch angle this season (18.2°) is significantly higher than his 7.3° angle last season.

Jeremiah Jackson is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Jeremiah Jackson will have an edge in today's matchup. Jeremiah Jackson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jeremiah Jackson has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.5% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last week. Over the past 7 days, Jeremiah Jackson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 104.1-mph recently.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Coby Mayo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Coby Mayo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 92.5-mph over the past 7 days. Coby Mayo's launch angle recently (27° in the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 20.8° seasonal angle. Coby Mayo has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .188 figure is a fair amount lower than his .215 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Ramon Laureano will have an edge in today's game. Ramon Laureano will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jose Iglesias will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Povich in today's game. Jose Iglesias will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Jose Iglesias has been unlucky this year, posting a .256 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .028 disparity.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Alex Jackson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Alex Jackson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year's 93.3-mph mark. In the past 7 days, Alex Jackson's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 26.7%.

Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Luis Vazquez will have an edge in today's game. Luis Vazquez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Luis Vazquez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.