Cleveland @ Boston Picks & Props

Jarren Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage today. With a .332 BABIP this year, Jarren Duran is ranked in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Fenway Park. Brayan Rocchio has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 86.9-mph average to last season's 84.5-mph EV. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.258) implies that Brayan Rocchio has suffered from bad luck this year with his .235 actual batting average.

David Fry is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. David Fry pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. David Fry has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year's 90.6-mph average. David Fry's launch angle this season (23.5°) is a significant increase over his 19.4° figure last year.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In the majors, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Connor Wong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Cantillo today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Wong's true offensive talent to be a .297, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .067 disparity between that figure and his actual .230 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Collin Kayfus in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Batting from the same side that Brennan Bernardino throws from, Collin Kayfus will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Collin Kayfus has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.320) may lead us to conclude that Collin Kayfus has experienced some negative variance this year with his .262 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 84th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Batting from the same side that Brennan Bernardino throws from, Nolan Jones will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Nolan Jones has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Nolan Jones has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.8% to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Brennan Bernardino will hold the platoon advantage against Bo Naylor today. Bo Naylor pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In terms of his batting average, Bo Naylor has had some very poor luck this year. His .177 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .222. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Bo Naylor ranks in the 95th percentile with a 21.2° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the majors.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Kwan in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Steven Kwan is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Batting from the same side that Brennan Bernardino throws from, Steven Kwan will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. Steven Kwan has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Angel Martinez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Angel Martinez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Angel Martinez's launch angle this season (18.5°) is quite a bit better than his 14.8° mark last year. Despite posting a .270 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Angel Martinez has had bad variance on his side given the .020 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .290.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Brennan Bernardino will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Manzardo today. Kyle Manzardo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Kyle Manzardo has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.3% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 7 days.

Jose Ramirez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for LHB batting average. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jose Ramirez has displayed good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 98th percentile with a 1.07 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In the majors, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Gabriel Arias hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Gabriel Arias has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.3-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV. Gabriel Arias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 11.9% to 15.9%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Alex Bregman will have an edge in today's game. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela's batting average ability is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Nate Eaton is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Nate Eaton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Cantillo today. Nate Eaton hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Nate Eaton will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have the upper hand today. Romy Gonzalez has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Trevor Story's BABIP talent is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In the majors, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Trevor Story will have an advantage in today's game.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Carlos Narvaez has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Carlos Narvaez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Carlos Narvaez's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 91.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 86.8-mph over the last week.

The #4 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Austin Hedges pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Austin Hedges has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year's 88.4-mph EV. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Austin Hedges ranks in the 97th percentile with a 24.3° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the league.

Masataka Yoshida has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.