Arizona @ Milwaukee picks

Quinn Priester has been one of the Brewers' best pitchers this season, posting an 11-2 record with a 3.44 ERA. The Diamondbacks' offense is sputtering along of late, and they've lost three straight games. I expect the bats to stay silent as they drop a fourth. 

The Brewers are 45-22 at home, 35-14 as home favorites, and 20-5 when the line was between -130 and -160. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are 30-36 on the road, 16-22 as road underdogs, and 17-28 against teams with winning percentages over .540. I can’t pass up the Brewers at this price tonight.

Pitching against the Brewers in the current Arizona vs. Milwaukee series has been tough sledding for the visitors, and I’m expecting more of that today. 
The Brewers chased Brandon Pfaadt after eight outs yesterday in a 9-8 win, while Eduardo Rodriguez was even shorter, going five outs in a 7-5 Milwaukee win. Nelson is projected for 89 pitches and 16.14 outs vs. the best offense in baseball over the last 30 days by a significant amount. Command away from his home mound is also an issue, with 21 walks across 55 road innings. That will hopefully run up his pitch count today and get him out before completing six. I would play this to even money.  

When assessing his home run ability, Pavin Smith ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pavin Smith is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. In MLB, American Family Field's CF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Ashby throws from, Pavin Smith will have an edge today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in the game.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. In the last week's worth of games, Ketel Marte's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.9%.

Isaac Collins is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 9th-worst field in baseball for run-scoring.. This matchup is projected to have the 3rd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The switch-hitting Isaac Collins will bat from his weak side (0) today against Ryne Nelson. In today's matchup, Isaac Collins is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.7% rate (87th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Quinn Priester to throw 79 pitches in today's game (10th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. In MLB, American Family Field's CF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Quinn Priester will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.. Quinn Priester has been lucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 3.44 rate is a good deal lower than his 4.45 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

In MLB, American Family Field's CF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Ryne Nelson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.. Ryne Nelson has relied on his four-seamer 8.2% more often this season (64.2%) than he did last season (56%).. Ryne Nelson has notched a .244 BABIP this year, making him one of the luckiest mound aces in the league on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage over Ryne Nelson in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Bauers will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his home run ability, Pavin Smith ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pavin Smith is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. In MLB, American Family Field's CF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Ashby throws from, Pavin Smith will have an edge today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in the game.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. In the last week's worth of games, Ketel Marte's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.9%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in the game.. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. In the last week's worth of games, Ketel Marte's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.9%.

Corbin Carroll projects as the 20th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corbin Carroll is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Corbin Carroll will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Ashby today.