Washington @ New York picks
Yankee Stadium
WAS vs NYY Picks
MLB Picks
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Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
I’ll simply trust Yankees pitcher Max Fried to deliver, despite his struggles, because of the strong ground ball peripherals against a team that hits them at an above-average rate. I expect the Bombers to have strong success against Nationals starter Cade Cavalli. His below-average hard-hit rate and heavy fastball usage are key things the Yankees’ hot offense can exploit.
Total RBIs

Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+110)
Projection 0.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in MLB.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total RBIs

Ben Rice o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ben Rice ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total RBIs

Giancarlo Stanton o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total RBIs

Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total Bases

Jasson Dominguez u1.5 Total Bases (-169)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Jasson Dominguez is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in the league for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Jasson Dominguez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences today.. In the past two weeks, Jasson Dominguez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.7°.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ryan McMahon o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 86th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Cavalli throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an edge in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

James Wood o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+120)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total Bases

Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total Bases (-179)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Outs Recorded

Max Fried o18.5 Outs Recorded (+135)
Projection 18.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Max Fried projects as the 8th-best pitcher in MLB right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Max Fried has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.. It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.. Austin Wells, the Yankees's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium's centerfield dimensions are the 6th-deepest.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Paul DeJong o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18.4-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Paul DeJong will have an advantage in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Paul DeJong tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.