Colorado @ Houston picks

Walker sits on the doorstep of another 20+ home run season. He’s gone deep 19 times, and I’m predicting No. 20 this evening. The Houston Astros face the Colorado Rockies and it’s Chase Dollander on the bump. He has a 6.91 ERA and has surrendered 16 bombs in 18 starts. 

Valdez isn’t one of the biggest strikeout pitchers in the league — he’s averaging 8.8 per nine innings — that length means he can compile big numbers by the time he leaves the game. And even though Valdez hasn’t gone 7+ innings since July 22, he’s in an excellent spot to get a lot of strikeouts tonight. The Colorado Rockies are one of the least threatening lineups in the majors. They’re also second in the majors in strikeouts, averaging 9.3 per game.

The Rockies are driving this price up as Framber Valdez is not a great command pitcher and has had this total at 2.5 in some spots this year. Just over his last five starts, the Houston starter has 12 walks in 29 innings and has hit the four-walk mark twice over that small sample. The Rockies are not a great walk team, and that’s why the price is right today, but Valdez averages a walk every three innings and is a pitcher with an 18.5 out total. He’s seeing a lot of batters and will see plenty of three-ball counts. THE BAT is projecting 1.7 walks on 94 pitches. He is 15-10 to the Over on this total this year.

When it comes to his home run talent, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Hunter Goodman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team playing today.. Hunter Goodman has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.6% seasonal rate to 19.2% in the past two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Chase Dollander today.. Yordan Alvarez has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage today.

Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Braxton Fulford will have an edge today.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team playing today.. Braxton Fulford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph to 90.9-mph in the last 14 days.. In the past 14 days, Braxton Fulford has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 21.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.4°.. Braxton Fulford is notably quick, checking in at the 87th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.82 ft/sec this year.

When it comes to his home run talent, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Hunter Goodman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team playing today.. Hunter Goodman has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.6% seasonal rate to 19.2% in the past two weeks.

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Orlando Arcia will have an edge in today's matchup.. Orlando Arcia pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team playing today.. Despite posting a .231 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Orlando Arcia has had some very poor luck given the .043 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .274.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Ritter in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. The shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park.. Ryan Ritter will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today's game.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team playing today.. Ryan Ritter has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 86-mph.

Kyle Karros's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Karros will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez today.. Kyle Karros pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team playing today.. Over the last week, Kyle Karros's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.9% up to 11.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Christian Walker is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. In the last 7 days, Christian Walker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.1% up to 27.8%.