San Francisco @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #4 park in MLB for suppressing batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Batting from the same side that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. has a tough challenge in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Petco Park as the 4th-worst stadium in the game for LHB batting average. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.9-mph EV last season has dropped to 85.4-mph. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 85.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.8-mph in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jung Hoo Lee is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Jung Hoo Lee will have an advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.274) may lead us to conclude that Jung Hoo Lee has had bad variance on his side this year with his .260 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Over the last 7 days, Heliot Ramos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph in recent games. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.9°, Heliot Ramos has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 19.7° mark over the last 14 days. Heliot Ramos has compiled a .326 BABIP this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Tyler Fitzgerald has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.4% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past 7 days.

Jose Iglesias's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Iglesias hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Jose Iglesias will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jose Iglesias has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .230 rate is quite a bit lower than his .247 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Casey Schmitt has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Over the last 7 days, Casey Schmitt's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 14.3%. In the past two weeks, Casey Schmitt's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph in recent games. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.270) implies that Casey Schmitt has been unlucky this year with his .251 actual batting average.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. The switch-hitting Patrick Bailey will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Nick Pivetta. Patrick Bailey's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 15.4% to 18.9%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Patrick Bailey's true offensive ability to be a .282, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .024 disparity between that figure and his actual .258 wOBA.

Elias Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Elias Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Elias Diaz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph EV. Elias Diaz's launch angle this season (18.4°) is significantly better than his 7.3° mark last season.

Batting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an advantage today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today's game. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph mark. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Gavin Sheets has experienced some negative variance this year. His .322 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .340.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Kai-Wei Teng in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

Christian Koss's BABIP skill is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Christian Koss has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 92-mph. Over the past week, Christian Koss's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.2%. Christian Koss has been hot recently, notching a an 11.8% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Rafael Devers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta today. Rafael Devers has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 95.8-mph in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Willy Adames is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Willy Adames's launch angle recently (44.3° over the last week) is a significant increase over his 20.9° seasonal mark. Despite posting a .305 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willy Adames has experienced some negative variance given the .030 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Andrew Gilbert will have an edge in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The shallowest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Petco Park. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Ramon Laureano will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the past week, Ramon Laureano's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.8% up to 33.3%.

Dominic Smith is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's game. Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Dominic Smith's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 41.2% to 53.3%. Placing in the 76th percentile, Dominic Smith sports a .328 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Bryce Johnson has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.