Detroit @ Minnesota picks

Both Zebby Matthews and Casey Mize have issues when it comes to allowing well-struck balls and extra-base hits, and while the Minnesota Twins don’t necessarily get on base with the same kind of consistency as the Detroit Tigers, they have still come in with a solid .169 ISO in the last two weeks to prove they can land some big blows off Mize. I think Matthews may very well get the best of Mize in this duel given his strikeout prowess, but it’s just very difficult not to lay off the total here. We should get some home runs against both men, and while both bullpens have been solid they’ve allowed their fair share of home runs in the last 14 days as well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Spencer Torkelson has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.8% rate last year to 14.3% this year.. Spencer Torkelson has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Kerry Carpenter is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Kerry Carpenter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zebby Matthews in today's game.. Kerry Carpenter may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

Matt Wallner projects as the 7th-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Matt Wallner will have an advantage in today's game.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.. Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Detroit (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).

Gleyber Torres's batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gleyber Torres is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Gleyber Torres's launch angle of late (28.4° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 15.6° seasonal mark.

Byron Buxton projects as the 8th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Out of all the teams playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Royce Lewis ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Out of all the teams playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.. Royce Lewis will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 15.8°, Royce Lewis has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. The switch-hitting Wenceel Perez will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Zebby Matthews.. Wenceel Perez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 95.6-mph in the last 7 days.. Wenceel Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 14.1% to 22.5%.. Over the last two weeks, Wenceel Perez's 64% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.7%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Trevor Larnach will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Luke Keaschall's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Luke Keaschall is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-best field in the game for run-scoring.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.