Miami @ Boston picks

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 2nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for mound aces. Hitting from the same side that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Alex Bregman will have a disadvantage today. In the last 14 days, Alex Bregman's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 2.6%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 2nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for mound aces. Lucas Giolito will have the handedness advantage against Otto Lopez in today's game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 2nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for mound aces. Lucas Giolito will have the handedness advantage against Agustin Ramirez in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 2nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for mound aces. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. This game is projected to have the 2nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for mound aces. In the past week's worth of games, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.2% down to 0%. In the past week, Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 92.8 mph to 81.2 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB. Graham Pauley will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's game. Graham Pauley has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph to 94.5-mph in the last week. In the past 7 days, Graham Pauley's 70% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.7%.

Roman Anthony's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Roman Anthony is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Batting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Roman Anthony will have an advantage in today's game. Roman Anthony is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dane Myers in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Dane Myers has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 104.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 91.7-mph. Dane Myers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, rising from 43.1% on the season to 63.6% in the last week's worth of games.

Liam Hicks is penciled in 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Liam Hicks will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's matchup. Liam Hicks has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past 7 days, Liam Hicks's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.9%.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Eric Wagaman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph EV. Eric Wagaman has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .274 figure is a good deal lower than his .294 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB. Masataka Yoshida will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara in today's matchup.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Romy Gonzalez will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Heriberto Hernandez's 95.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 83rd percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Jakob Marsee will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Over the past two weeks, Jakob Marsee's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 16.7%. Notching a 96.1-mph average exit velocity over the last week, Jakob Marsee has been in great form recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Batting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge today. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Stowers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB. Kyle Stowers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB. Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Troy Johnston will have the upper hand today. Troy Johnston has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph to 89.6-mph over the past 7 days. Troy Johnston's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 43.8% on the season to 60% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (20.5° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 13.5° seasonal angle.

Trevor Story's BABIP talent is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Trevor Story has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Trevor Story will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in the league for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB. Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Abraham Toro has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89-mph mark. Abraham Toro has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal mark of 91.6-mph.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the majors for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all parks, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Carlos Narvaez's 91.4-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in MLB this year: 83rd percentile.