Chicago @ St. Louis picks

St. Louis right-hander Sonny Gray has yielded an .865 OPS to this Cubs lineup, and the Cardinals will face a tough task at the plate against Shota Imanaga. The Japanese southpaw shut them down over five scoreless innings back in late June, allowing just one hit. Back Chicago to grab the road win in this NL Central clash

The Cubs woke up at the dish during Saturday’s 9-1 win over the Cardinals, and the Cubbies are positioned to keep the good times rolling with Cards reeling righty Sonny Gray toeing the rubber Sunday. Gray sports a 6.49 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across his past seven starts, and while his underlying numbers suggest smoother times ahead, I’m not convinced the Chicago lineup kick-starts the statistical correction. The Cubs rank fifth in wOBA and third in ISO against right-handed pitchers this season, and they’ve also been unlucky at the dish with the seventh-lowest BABIP despite the fourth-highest barrel percentage since the calendar flipped to July.

Gray has allowed six home runs over his past four starts, with at least one surrendered in each outing. He is 1-2 with a 7.97 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over that stretch. If anyone on Chicago is likely to keep this streak going, it is Kyle Tucker. Through nine plate appearances against Gray, Tucker boasts a .625 slugging percentage and a .648 xSLG.

Through 10 plate appearances against Gray, Suzuki sports a .667 slugging percentage and one home run. He also enters this contest in good form, with four hits over his past three games.
Suzuki is slugging .800 with a 1.262 OPS over that stretch. Additionally, one of those four hits was a home run.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Ivan Herrera will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Ivan Herrera hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 8th-best batter in baseball.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup.. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (97% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Jordan Walker will have an edge today.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 16th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 8th-best batter in baseball.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup.. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Shota Imanaga encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Shota Imanaga will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Shota Imanaga's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this season (90.1 mph) below where it was last season (91.6 mph).. Shota Imanaga has experienced some positive variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 3.12 rate is quite a bit lower than his 4.57 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 8th-best batter in baseball.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup.. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.