Boston @ San Diego Picks & Props

Petco Park projects as the #23 venue in MLB for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 6th-best pitching conditions of all games today. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.9-mph figure last season has fallen to 85.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela's launch angle in recent games (21.2° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 11.7° seasonal figure.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Abraham Toro's launch angle in recent games (33.2° in the last week's worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 13.8° seasonal mark.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Alex Bregman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season's 90.9-mph figure. Ranking in the 97th percentile, Alex Bregman sits with a .391 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Roman Anthony's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Roman Anthony will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Roman Anthony generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Masataka Yoshida are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Ryan O'Hearn will hold the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's matchup. Ryan O'Hearn will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Ryan O'Hearn has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 92.8-mph.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, compiling a .196 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .100 gap. Checking in at the 79th percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .314 BABIP since the start of last season.

Elias Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage today. Elias Diaz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph mark. Elias Diaz's launch angle this year (17.8°) is considerably better than his 7.3° figure last season. Elias Diaz's quickness has improved this season. His 24.41 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.96 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Manny Machado has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 96.7-mph over the past two weeks.

Petco Park ranks as the #23 stadium in the league for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 6th-best pitching conditions of all games today. Hitting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

Ramon Laureano's BABIP talent is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage today. Ramon Laureano has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.5-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.2-mph mark. Ramon Laureano's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 47.5% on the season to 53.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 6.9% seasonal rate to 14% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Trevor Story has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Over the past 7 days, Trevor Story's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.5%. Trevor Story has recorded a .335 BABIP this year, placing in the 91st percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Walker Buehler today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jake Cronenworth has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, placing in the 81st percentile with a 1.68 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jackson Merrill will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors. Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 10.8% seasonal rate to 20% over the past two weeks.

Freddy Fermin hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Freddy Fermin will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's matchup. There has been a significant improvement in Wilyer Abreu's launch angle from last year's 19° to 23.9° this year. Over the last week, Wilyer Abreu's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.6%.