Boston @ San Diego picks

Nick Pivetta has cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in six of his last seven appearances. Last time out, Pivetta gave up just one earned run across seven innings against the Cardinals. Plus, his ERA is a sterling 1.99 at Petco Park. It will be tough sledding for the Red Sox tonight.

Manny Machado is very familiar with right-hander Walker Buehler, going 10-for-31 with a pair of doubles. He’s also cashed the Over in total bases in two of his previous three games. Machado has raked against righties this season, batting .317, and I expect him to do damage versus Buehler tonight

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the game for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the game for RHB home runs.. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the game for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Trevor Story has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Petco Park grades out as the #7 venue in MLB for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Walker Buehler today.

Ramon Laureano's BABIP talent is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the game for RHB home runs.. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Petco Park grades out as the #7 venue in MLB for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the game for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Petco Park grades out as the #7 venue in MLB for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Ryan O'Hearn will hold the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-best ballpark in the game for RHB home runs.. Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, compiling a .196 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .100 gap.. Checking in at the 79th percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .314 BABIP since the start of last season.

Petco Park has the shallowest CF fences in the majors.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all parks in today's game.. Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Nick Pivetta (39.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in Boston's projected offense.. With a 1.24 difference between Nick Pivetta's 2.73 ERA and his 3.97 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to perform worse going forward.