Baltimore @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst of the day). Coby Mayo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 12.5% on the season to 21.7% in the last two weeks.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #24 ballpark in the league for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Batting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Nick Castellanos will have a disadvantage today. Nick Castellanos's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 87.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 82.6-mph in the past 14 days. As it relates to plate discipline, Nick Castellanos's ability is quite poor, putting up a 4.23 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 16th percentile.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #24 ballpark in the league for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Dean Kremer will hold the platoon advantage against Trea Turner today. Over the past week, Trea Turner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.3% down to 0%. Trea Turner's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, going from 43.3% on the season to 25% over the last week.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Notching a 95.1-mph average exit velocity in the past week, Jeremiah Jackson has been in great form of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 85th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage today. Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Bryson Stott will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #24 ballpark in the league for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Dean Kremer will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against J.T. Realmuto in today's matchup. J.T. Realmuto's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 90.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 86.4-mph in the past 7 days. J.T. Realmuto's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 94.4-mph EV last season has dropped to 91.4-mph.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage against Dean Kremer today. Max Kepler will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Max Kepler has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's game. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Citizens Bank Park ranks as the #24 ballpark in the league for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Hitting from the same side that Taijuan Walker throws from, Jordan Westburg will have a tough matchup in today's game. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jordan Westburg in today's matchup. Jordan Westburg has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 4.5% in the past two weeks.

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #24 stadium in the game for LHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal figure of 9.8°, Gunnar Henderson has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.6°) in the past 14 days. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 14.1% to 10.1%.

Edmundo Sosa's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Edmundo Sosa will hold that advantage in today's game. Checking in at the 87th percentile, Edmundo Sosa has posted a .323 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's matchup. Colton Cowser has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 10.6% to 17%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Dylan Carlson has been unlucky this year. His .247 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .282.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Otto Kemp will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Otto Kemp's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 21.6% on the season to 42.1% in the last two weeks.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 14th-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all parks. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer in today's matchup.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 4th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP ability. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer in today's game. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Brandon Marsh will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.