Cincinnati @ Chicago picks

Dansby Swanson has 12 homers off right-handed hurlers, and the Reds send trade deadline acquisition Zack Littell to the bump. He’s been relatively effective, but Littell does struggle to keep opponents in the ballpark, allowing 26 long balls. Swanson is also 2-for-5 lifetime against him with a home run

Chicago ranks third in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers, and Littell has statistical correction ahead of his unsustainable .258 BABIP and 85.9% strand rate. The Cincy righty’s 3.58 ERA is also well below his 4.62 xERA and 4.31 xFIP, and Littell has also surrendered a healthy 42.2% hard-hit rate and 11.1 barrel percentage.

Shota Imanaga does have some wind blowing in at Wrigley that is helpful but this is still not a leash I trust and +145 is a big price. He has gone Over this number in two of his six home starts and is 10-5 to the Under on the season. He entered in poor form having given up 10 runs over his last two starts (CWS/MIL) and gave up five total home runs in those two starts. The Cubs are in the middle of a big playoff race so bringing in the bullpen is a high-leverage situation before 18 outs is certainly on the table. Ultimately, it’s a big price for a pitcher who might not throw more than 90 pitches. 

Crow-Armstrong has been nearly automatic against righties with a high-end .398 wOBA and .306 ISO, and he’s also settled into the heart of the order to bolster his counting stats. Cincinnati righty Zack Littell has statistical correction coming to his unsustainably low .258 BABIP considering he's been squared up for a healthy 42.2% hard-hit rate and 11.1 barrel percentage, too.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.. Elly De La Cruz has put up a .351 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 81st percentile.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 8th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Kyle Tucker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Littell today.. Kyle Tucker will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Ian Happ is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side against Zack Littell today.. Ian Happ will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Over the past 7 days, Ian Happ's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 20%.

Austin Hays is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Austin Hays will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Austin Hays pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. With a .319 BABIP this year, Austin Hays has performed in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 19th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Among all parks, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.. Seiya Suzuki will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Seiya Suzuki has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last year to 18.6% this year.

Matt McLain's BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Matt McLain will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt McLain's true offensive skill to be a .322, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .030 difference between that mark and his actual .292 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.. Elly De La Cruz has put up a .351 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Tyler Stephenson will have the upper hand today.. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 14% to 21.7%.. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 21.7% on the season to 28.6% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.. Elly De La Cruz has put up a .351 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 81st percentile.