I wrapped up last week on a winning note and am looking for more profitable pitcher props on the first full week of August. It’s the final stretch of the season, so make sure to keep an eye on workloads and pitchers who might not have full leashes.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Tuesday, August 5.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 5
Imanaga u17.5 outs (+142)
Burrows o15.5 outs (+145)
Paddack to record the win (+180)
Reds vs. Cubs
The angle: Form, leash, and price
The move: Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 outs (+142 at FanDuel)
Shota Imanaga does have some wind blowing in at Wrigley that is helpful, but this is still not a leash I trust, and +142 is a big price.
He has gone Over this number in two of his six home starts and is 10-5 to the Under on the season. He's in poor form, having given up 10 runs over his last two starts (CWS/MIL), surrendering five total home runs.
The Chicago Cubs are in the middle of a big playoff race, so bringing in the bullpen in a high-leverage situation before 18 outs is certainly on the table. Ultimately, it’s a big price for a pitcher who might not throw more than 90 pitches.
Giants at Pirates
The angle: Growing pitch count, just carved the Giants, the Pirates had a bullpen day yesterday, and price
The move: Mike Burrows Over 15.5 outs (+145 at bet365)
I’m going against the projections here as THE BAT is calling for 76 pitches, but there is a decent path for 90+. It’s all about the plus money on this prop as Mike Burrows is coming off a season-high 91 pitches vs. this same lineup on the road and now gets to go again, but this time at home, where his numbers have been better — especially his BB/9.
I would buy this to +115 with my MLB picks, as there is a good chance that he stays efficient and keeps missing bats after striking out seven compared to just one free pass vs. the San Francisco Giants five days ago.
PNC Park is a solid place to pitch today, with winds blowing in. Plus, the Pittsburgh Pirates had a bullpen day yesterday, so a longer leash is very possible. His Under 1.5 walks at -110 projects well.
Twins vs. Tigers
The angle: Facing his former team and the Twins are fade down the stretch
The move: Chris Paddack to record the win YES (+180 at bet365)
Chris Paddack will face his former team today after being dealt from the Minnesota Twins to the Detroit Tigers last week. The Twins were big sellers, and this is a spot where Paddack should go 18 outs.
The Tigers were already decent -150 ML favorites vs. Zebby Matthews and a free-falling Twins team (3-7 SU L10). The Twins are going to see the best of Paddack tonight and will be without Byron Buxton, who is still on the shelf.
This is a Bottom-10 offense since the break, and the Tigers can put up crooked numbers vs. Matthews, who has allowed 4+ runs in four of his seven starts this season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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