Cincinnati @ Chicago picks

I'm still not sure why the Cubs didn't land a more impactful starting pitcher than Michael Soroka at the trade deadline. And while The Friendly Confines can be challenging for visiting teams, I'm not sure why the Reds are such underdogs with Nick Lodolo on the bump opposite Soroka. 

Lodolo is due for a bit of a regression with an xERA sitting at 3.60. Current Cubs hitters have combined for a .322 batting average and a .533 slugging percentage against Lodolo while striking out just 21.9% of the time over 105 plate appearances.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Among every team on the slate today, the 9th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Kyle Tucker will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.. Projected catcher Tyler Stephenson profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Nick Lodolo will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.. Nick Lodolo's 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph drop off from last year's 94.1-mph figure.. Nick Lodolo has been very fortunate when it comes to his ERA this year; his 3.09 figure is deflated compared to his 3.83 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Michael Busch is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Michael Busch will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Michael Busch has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 15.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 8.3% in the last week's worth of games.

The 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Wrigley Field.. Justin Turner will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo today.. Among every team on the slate today, the 9th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Justin Turner will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 19.1% to 24.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Wrigley Field profiles as the #22 stadium in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The league's 7th-highest fence height (on average) can be found at Wrigley Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 6th-most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Mike Soroka throws from, Jake Fraley will have an advantage today.. Jake Fraley's launch angle this year (18.6°) is considerably higher than his 10.9° angle last season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.6°, Jake Fraley has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 22.5° figure over the past 14 days.. With a 1.62 K/BB rate this year, Jake Fraley has demonstrated strong plate discipline, ranking in the 87th percentile.