The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are both battling.
The Cubs have fallen out of first place in the National League Central, while the Reds are fighting for a wildcard spot. This three-game set holds some added importance.
Cincy hands the ball to Nick Lodolo for the opener, and my Reds vs. Cubs predictions break down why this could be a tough night for the hard-throwing left-hander.
Check out my MLB picks for this NL Central clash with first pitch slated for 8:05 pm ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, on Monday, August 4.
Reds vs Cubs prediction
My Reds vs Cubs best bet: Nick Lodolo Under 17.5 outs (+110 at Caesars)
I love watching Nick Lodolo pitch. And at times, he looks like one of the best starters in baseball. But too often, he loses the zone, and the wheels fall off.
That explains why the Cincinnati Reds starter’s numbers are solid but not elite. His 3.60 expected ERA and .240 opponent expected batting average are just above league average, and the Chicago Cubs are a team that has given him plenty of problems in the past.
Current Cubs hitters have combined for a .322 batting average and a .533 slugging percentage against Lodolo while striking out just 21.9% of the time over 105 plate appearances.
Chicago has also been one of the most productive lineups in the Big Leagues this season and has done a great job against left-handed pitching. The Cubs rank sixth in OPS, fifth in wRC+, and have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate when facing lefties this season.
So, this definitely won’t be an easy matchup for the Reds’ southpaw.
On top of that, Lodolo averages just 91.3 pitches per start, and when he starts giving up hits in bunches, that pitch count can run up pretty quickly.
His outs total is sitting at 17.5 for this one. The Cubs are a patient and good lineup that can force him to throw a lot of pitches. At plus money, I’m taking a shot on the Under tonight.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Reds vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs -0.5 — first five innings
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases
Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 hits
Countering Lodolo is Michael Soroka, who is making his Cubs debut. The 28-year-old right-hander must be thrilled to be in a pennant race, and while he might have a 4.87 ERA, his underlying stats say the Cubs may have gotten a steal at the deadline.
Soroka has a 3.33 expected ERA and is limiting opponents to a .218 expected batting average, which ranks in the Top 25% among MLB pitchers. With that in mind, give me the Cubs on the five-inning runline.
One of the Cubs who has the best numbers against Lodolo is outfielder Seiya Suzuki. He’s 5-for-13 with three doubles and eight walks vs. Lodolo. Over 1.5 total for Suzuki tonight.
And let’s mess with the SGP algorithm a bit and take Under 0.5 hits for Dansby Swanson. He’s hitting just .200 with a 40.7% K-rate since the All-Star break and is just 2-for-14 with seven strikeouts vs. Lodolol.
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Reds vs Cubs odds
Reds vs Cubs live odds
Reds vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +120 | Chicago -140
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-190) | Chicago -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Reds vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games at home for +12.20 Units and a 14% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs.
How to watch Reds vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Monday, 8-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNOH, Marquee |
| Reds starting pitcher | Nick Lodolo (8-6, 3.09 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Michael Soroka (3-8, 4.87 ERA) |
Reds vs Cubs latest injuries
Reds vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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