Detroit @ Philadelphia picks

Philly southpaw Cristopher Sanchez is in the midst of a career year, flexing a top-five ERA in the NL. Considering Charlie Morton is well over the hill and entering Sunday Night Baseball with an ERA north of 5.00, expect the Phillies' bats to give him a rude welcome in his debut as a Tiger.

The Phillies have oodles of familiarity facing Tigers veteran Charlie Morton, and the 41-year-old righty hasn’t been sharp. Morton’s 5.42 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and  4.36 xFIP are his highest marks in over a decade, and his 8.97 K/9 and 21.8 K% are also his lowest totals since 2015. Philly has also been money at Citizens Bank Park with a 34-20 record and sixth-ranked .339 wOBA, and lefty Cristopher Sanchez sports a tidy 2.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2.81 xFIP, while holding opposing hitters to a miniscule 5.4 barrel percentage.

Javier Baez will come into this game with a ground ball rate near 40%, which places him in the Top 5% of baseball in groundball rate for qualified hitters. That’s a problem when facing a pitcher who rates in the 98th percentile of baseball in induced ground balls in Cristopher Sanchez.

Harper has fared extremely well against Morton in the past, posting a .621 slugging percentage and .567 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) through 39 plate appearances.

Through 23 appearances this season, Morton is 7-8 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor, as he ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and walk rate. Schwarber is likely to exploit this opportunity. Entering this contest in great form, Schwarber has hit 10 home runs over his past 19 games.

Outside of Schwarber and Harper, nobody else in the Phillies lineup is hitting the ball harder than Max Kepler these days. He’s made a substantial improvement in his barrel rate compared to last season, with the number near 15% entering today. Charlie Morton has given up far too many barreled hits this season, increasing the likelihood that Kepler could record an RBI all by himself.

Harper has had a long history against Morton, and much of that has come during the peak of Morton’s career. That history includes 39 plate appearances with a .414 batting average and .621 slugging.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. Max Kepler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's game.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Max Kepler has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.2% rate last year to 11.9% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Otto Kemp will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Otto Kemp has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.9% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the last week's worth of games.

As it relates to his home run ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. Spencer Torkelson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup.. Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 12th-best hitter in MLB.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's game.. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Gleyber Torres will have the upper hand today.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Nick Castellanos will hold that advantage in today's game.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. Max Kepler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's game.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Max Kepler has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.2% rate last year to 11.9% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to less offense.. Low humidity has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-lowest humidity on the slate at 38%.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Spencer Torkelson in today's game.. Over the last 7 days, Spencer Torkelson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.5% down to 0%.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an edge in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 12th-best hitter in MLB.. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's game.. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.