Baltimore @ Chicago Picks & Props

Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Matthew Boyd. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 10.6% to 17.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today. Dansby Swanson has been unlucky this year, notching a .305 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .024 gap. Dansby Swanson is in the 88th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48.7% rate this year).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the majors. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Gunnar Henderson has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 8.8% seasonal rate to 17.4% over the last 7 days. In the past 14 days, Gunnar Henderson's 60% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.2%. Gunnar Henderson has compiled a .352 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 86th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Matthew Boyd. Over the past week, Adley Rutschman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.7% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Colton Cowser has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Colton Cowser has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.6% seasonal rate to 40% over the past 7 days. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.5°, Colton Cowser has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 29° mark in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Jackson Holliday's 31.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.6%. Jackson Holliday has notched a .320 BABIP this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Tomoyuki Sugano. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Ian Happ will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ian Happ has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last two weeks.

Matt Shaw will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Matt Shaw has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.5% seasonal rate to 12.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games. In the past week, Matt Shaw's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.1-mph lately. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.258) provides evidence that Matt Shaw has suffered from bad luck this year with his .225 actual batting average.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Tyler O'Neill will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Boyd today. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Tyler O'Neill has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 17.2% seasonal rate to 46.2% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Michael Busch is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Michael Busch will have the upper hand today. Michael Busch will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Michael Busch's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 18.1% to 24.2%.

Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Jeremiah Jackson will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. Jordan Westburg will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's game. Jordan Westburg's launch angle of late (20.6° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 15.2° seasonal figure.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today's game. Kyle Tucker will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Kyle Tucker has recorded a .384 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 19th-best batter in MLB. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's game. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last season to 18.4% this year.

Carson Kelly is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. Carson Kelly will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Carson Kelly's launch angle recently (36.3° over the past 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 15.9° seasonal mark. Compared to last year, Carson Kelly has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.7% to 18.1% this season.

Coby Mayo is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Coby Mayo will have an advantage in today's game. In the past 7 days, Coby Mayo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11% up to 20%. Coby Mayo has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal mark of 90.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 16th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average talent. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nico Hoerner will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner's launch angle this season (13.2°) is a considerable increase over his 10.1° angle last year. Utilizing Statcast data, Nico Hoerner grades out in the 93rd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .288. As it relates to plate discipline, Nico Hoerner's ability is quite impressive, putting up a 1.51 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 86th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold that advantage today. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 8% rate last year to 14.5% this season.

Alex Jackson will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup. Alex Jackson pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Alex Jackson has been hot recently, compiling a a 33.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) over the past 7 days. Alex Jackson has displayed some good exit velocity statistics recently, averaging 102.7-mph on his flyballs over the past 14 days. In the last 14 days, Alex Jackson's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 31.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Hitting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Reese McGuire will have an advantage today. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Reese McGuire has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last year's 89.1-mph EV. Reese McGuire's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 15% to 19.7%.