Baltimore @ Chicago picks

The Cubs have a great matchup to do real damage. Tomoyuki Sugano owns a 4.38 ERA on the season and has struggled to limit power. He owns an 11.3% barrel rate and has given up 21 homers on the year over 109 innings of work. That equates to 1.73 homers per nine innings. Chicago sits tied for first in runs per game, third in average, and third in homers. They're as likely as any team to exploit Sugano’s struggles.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today.. Dansby Swanson has been unlucky this year, notching a .305 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .024 gap.. Dansby Swanson is in the 88th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48.7% rate this year).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 19th-best batter in MLB.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's game.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last season to 18.4% this year.

Tyler O'Neill projects as the 12th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Tyler O'Neill will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Boyd today.. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Tyler O'Neill has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 17.2% seasonal rate to 46.2% over the past week.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today's game.. Kyle Tucker will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.. As it relates to his home runs, Kyle Tucker has been unlucky this year. His 22.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 28.2.

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd today.. With a 1.38 disparity between Matthew Boyd's 2.47 ERA and his 3.85 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to negatively regress the rest of the season.. Baltimore's 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the league: #4 overall.. Collectively, Baltimore Orioles batters have excelled in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 4th-best in MLB.

Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league.. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Matthew Boyd.. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 10.6% to 17.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Colton Cowser has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. Colton Cowser has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.6% seasonal rate to 40% over the past 7 days.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.5°, Colton Cowser has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 29° mark in the last week.. In terms of power, Colton Cowser has performed in the 79th percentile, having averaged 23.2 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 76th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Coby Mayo is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Coby Mayo will have an advantage in today's game.. In the past 7 days, Coby Mayo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11% up to 20%.

Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Jeremiah Jackson will have an advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the majors.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Gunnar Henderson has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 8.8% seasonal rate to 17.4% over the last 7 days.. In the past 14 days, Gunnar Henderson's 60% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.2%.. Gunnar Henderson has compiled a .352 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 86th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.