Texas @ Seattle picks

Cal Raleigh shouldn’t be priced longer than J-Rod (-125) given his current form—as he launched his league-leading 42nd homer yesterday. He hit second in the roder but was hitting third two games ago. Jack Leiter’s been sharp but is coming off a season-high 100 pitches and carries a 1.50 WHIP on the road, so some drop in quality wouldn’t be surprising. Raleigh is 3-for-8 with 2 homers off Leiter and offers value at +295 for 4+ HRRBI.

Jack Leiter takes the bump for the Texas Rangers, and he’s actually been pretty serviceable lately, allowing no more than two earned runs in five of his last six starts. However, I’m not yet ready to fully commit as his 4.78 xERA and 4.76 xFIP both indicate regression from his 4.09 ERA. His biggest flaw is his severe reverse splits (.274/.361/.448 career slash line against right-handed hitters). Enter Eugenio Suarez. The slugging third baseman was reunited with the Seattle Mariners at the deadline after bopping 36 home runs and posting a 143 wRC+ with Arizona. Suarez is poised to capitalize on this matchup thanks to his reverse splits (151 wRC+ against RHP).

When it comes to his home run ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Adolis Garcia has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 4th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 4th-shallowest among all stadiums.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The #2 ballpark in the majors for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.. Batting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Eugenio Suarez has a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Eugenio Suarez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased lately, going from 39.9% on the season to 28.6% over the past 14 days.. Eugenio Suarez has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 49.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 32.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 4th-shallowest among all stadiums.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Rowdy Tellez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.. Rowdy Tellez has made significant gains with his Barrel%, improving his 8.1% rate last year to 15.2% this year.

Evan Carter is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 4th-shallowest among all stadiums.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Evan Carter will have an edge in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Joc Pederson ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Gilbert throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge in today's matchup.. Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

Jonah Heim pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 11.1% to 15%.. Over the past 7 days, Jonah Heim's 56.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Wyatt Langford pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.. Wyatt Langford has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 93.6-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The weather report forecasts the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Cal Raleigh will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Batting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Cole Young will have an advantage today.. Cole Young pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Cole Young will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. When it comes to his home runs, Cole Young has had some very poor luck this year. His 11.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.9.