Pittsburgh @ Colorado Picks & Props

Spencer Horwitz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Spencer Horwitz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 7 days. Spencer Horwitz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, falling from 19.7% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

Antonio Senzatela will hold the platoon advantage against Andrew McCutchen in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Andrew McCutchen today. Andrew McCutchen's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 87.1-mph in the past 7 days. Andrew McCutchen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 17.4% to 12.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for righty batting average. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bryan Reynolds in today's game. Bryan Reynolds has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Bryan Reynolds's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 17.1% on the season to 8.8% over the past 14 days. Sporting a .288 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Bryan Reynolds grades out in the 19th percentile. Posting a 3.93 K/BB rate this year, Bryan Reynolds has demonstrated poor plate discipline, grading out in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Warming Bernabel in the 21st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Tommy Pham is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today. Batting from the same side that Antonio Senzatela throws from, Tommy Pham will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tommy Pham in today's matchup. Last season, Tommy Pham had a launch angle of 9.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 5.5°. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.238) provides evidence that Tommy Pham has been very fortunate this year with his .273 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for righty batting average. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.

This year, Tyler Freeman has been pinch hit for in 16% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter. Tyler Freeman's launch angle this year (7.8°) is considerably worse than his 12.9° mark last season. Tyler Freeman's launch angle recently (-2.6° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly lower than his 7.8° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Freeman's true offensive talent to be a .327, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .023 deviation between that mark and his actual .350 wOBA.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Thairo Estrada ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Thairo Estrada has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup. Thairo Estrada has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 83.7-mph over the past week. Thairo Estrada has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .261 mark is a fair amount higher than his .248 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Based on Statcast data, Thairo Estrada is in the 10th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .271.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for righty batting average. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Orlando Arcia will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for righty batting average. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Liover Peguero has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the past week — 110.3-mph — which is a strong measure of recent form and raw power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for righty batting average. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Henry Davis has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 9.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days.

Jordan Beck has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 85.1-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.4°, Jordan Beck has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.5°) in the last 14 days. Jordan Beck has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .273 BA is significantly inflated relative to his .243 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a 4.3 K/BB rate this year, Jordan Beck has displayed poor plate discipline, placing in the 14th percentile.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oneil Cruz today. Oneil Cruz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 21% seasonal rate has dropped to 12.5% in the past 14 days. Oneil Cruz's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 40.7% on the season to 20% in the past week's worth of games. Ranking in the 9th percentile, Oneil Cruz has put up a .214 batting average this year.

Hunter Goodman has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .357 rate is inflated compared to his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Posting a 5.17 K/BB rate this year, Hunter Goodman has shown poor plate discipline, grading out in the 6th percentile.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the same side that Antonio Senzatela throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Isiah Kiner-Falefa today. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 88.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 83.5-mph over the last 7 days. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's launch angle this season (2.9°) is considerably worse than his 8.9° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best field in the game for LHB batting average. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Ezequiel Tovar has gone under 1.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for righty batting average. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to more offense. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Kyle Farmer will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Heaney in today's matchup.

Michael Toglia has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.