Atlanta @ Cincinnati picks

Andrew Abbott has established himself as one of the game's best southpaws, sporting an 8-1 record and 2.09 ERA heading into Thursday night's matchup against Atlanta. With Ronald Acuna Jr. landing on the IL for the Braves, I'm all over Cincy taking care of business at home.

Jake Fraley isn’t exactly a guy with a ton of power, slugging only six bombs this year, but the matchup plays in his favor. The Reds take on the Braves, who give Carlos Carrasco his first start in an Atlanta uniform. He’s had minimal success in 2025, posting a 5.91 ERA. The veteran has allowed seven homers in just eight appearances. 

My numbers make this strikeout line around 5.5, and just earlier this year, Abbott went five innings and struck out five on the road against this same Atlanta Braves team. Now he comes back home against this exact Braves team, having eclipsed this strikeout number in three starts. Again, we’re happily betting it. Since the start of July, Atlanta has the 8th-highest strikeouts per game in the majors at 8.55, and more recently that number has increased to nearly ten. In addition to that, they are in the bottom ten of key metrics you look for when assessing strikeout potential — things like the 7th-lowest contact rate on pitches thrown in the zone. These are aspects that should have Abbott — who has pitched at a Cy Young level — foaming at the mouth for the second edition of this matchup.

Not only is Abbott having a great season with a 3.20 xERA but he's been a workhorse for this Reds rotation. He's averaged 95.1 pitches and nearly 6 1/3 inning pitched over his last 10 starts. Tonight he faces an Atlanta team that looks dead in the water and ranks 21st in batting average and 17th in OPS vs. LHP.

When it comes to his home run skill, Austin Riley ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #2 field in baseball for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Austin Riley pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for RHB home runs.. This matchup is expected to have the 14th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.8-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Sean Murphy will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #2 field in baseball for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #2 field in baseball for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Matt McLain has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The 3rd-worst projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Atlanta Braves.. The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in Major League Baseball for home runs.. In the majors, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This matchup is expected to have the 14th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Will Benson is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. Will Benson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 14% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.. The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 4th-best among every team in action today.. Will Benson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 14.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 7 days.. Will Benson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, falling from 16.1% on the season to 0% in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for RHB home runs.. This matchup is expected to have the 14th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.8-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Sean Murphy will have the upper hand today.

Sean Murphy is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.. Considering Brady Singer's large platoon split, Sean Murphy will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in this game.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Sean Murphy in today's game.. Sean Murphy has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 13.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 14 days.. Sean Murphy's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 94.6-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 88.9-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #2 field in baseball for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Jurickson Profar is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for left-handed home runs.. Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Jurickson Profar's launch angle of late (22° in the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 18.6° seasonal angle.. Grading out in the 89th percentile, Jurickson Profar sits with a .353 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season.