Tampa Bay @ New York picks

Anytime Marcus Stroman takes the mound in 2025, I'm fading him. The Yankees veteran has failed to reach the fifth inning in three out of his last four starts, and he holds an xERA and hard-hit% that sit in the bottom sixth percentile of baseball. Considering the Rays fare nearly .100 points better against right-handed pitching, take Tampa Bay to prevail in this AL East clash. 

I don't really get why this line is close to a Pick'em. Ryan Pepiot has great numbers against the Yankees, including limiting them to a .205 xBA and doesn't have to worry about Aaron Judge. While Marcus Stroman has been inconsistent and has a 5.12 FIP in five starts since returning to the Yanks' rotation. 

Chisholm is hitting just .213 since the All-Star break with a big 31.4% K-rate. So, he won't be happy to see Ryan Pepiot on the mound today. Chisholm is 0-for-11 in his career vs. the Rays starter.

Lowe has left the yard 19 times this season, and 16 of those home runs are off righties. The Yanks send Marcus Stroman to the bump today and he’s not exactly thriving, compiling a 6.09 ERA. 

Marcus Stroman is expected to return to around 90 pitches after throwing 89 in his last outing, despite struggling with command and not making it through four full innings. He still managed four strikeouts in that game and has recorded four or more Ks in three of his last four starts—the only under being a 3-strikeout performance. He’s projected for 94 pitches and 3.81 strikeouts against a Rays team that ranks in the top 10 in strikeout rate, with the wind blowing in at the ballpark. It's not a sexy pick but the money has been on the Over as it was +115 this morning. Buy to -115.

When assessing his home run talent, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 6th-best hitter in the league when it comes to his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Giancarlo Stanton will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Cody Bellinger's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Cody Bellinger will have the upper hand today.

Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 31.5% to 38.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Trent Grisham is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Trent Grisham will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Trent Grisham is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Trent Grisham will have the upper hand in today's game.

When assessing his home run talent, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 86th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Ryan McMahon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot today.. Ryan McMahon will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 10th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.. Giancarlo Stanton will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.