New York @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #8 ballpark in the majors for suppressing BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The weather report calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.9-mph figure last year has dropped off to 85.7-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.301) provides evidence that Luis Arraez has been very fortunate this year with his .319 actual wOBA.

The switch-hitting Ronny Mauricio will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Yu Darvish. In the past week's worth of games, Ronny Mauricio's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.9% up to 33.3%. Ronny Mauricio has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 96.3-mph in the last week's worth of games. Ronny Mauricio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 13.4% on the season to 33.3% over the past week.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Brett Baty will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brett Baty has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 102-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 96.3-mph. Brett Baty has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .230 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .270 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Martin Maldonado's 17.4° launch angle (an advanced metric to measure a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in the majors: 82nd percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Francisco Lindor is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Francisco Lindor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 14.8% on the season to 33.3% in the last week. Despite posting a .322 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Francisco Lindor has been unlucky given the .020 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .342.

In comparison to his 88.7-mph average last year, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.4 mph. In the past two weeks, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph recently. Over the last two weeks, Francisco Alvarez has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 21.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 9°.

Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.7°, Gavin Sheets has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 23.6° mark in the last week.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in MLB. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage today.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Xander Bogaerts will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Tyrone Taylor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 13.5% to 18.7%. Despite posting a .247 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyrone Taylor has had bad variance on his side given the .049 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296.

Bryce Johnson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Bryce Johnson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Bryce Johnson has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 4% seasonal rate to 9.1% in the last 14 days. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Bryce Johnson's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 56%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Jose Iglesias will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Mark Vientos is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Mark Vientos has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.8% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last week. Mark Vientos has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 101.9-mph in the past week's worth of games. Compared to his seasonal average of 12°, Mark Vientos has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.5° angle over the past 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an edge today. Brandon Nimmo has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.2-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an edge in today's game. Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Pete Alonso ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Pete Alonso has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 13.2% rate last season to 19.8% this season. Pete Alonso has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Manny Machado will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage over Clay Holmes today. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest out of every team today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today.

Jeff McNeil is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage against Yu Darvish today. Jeff McNeil has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 6.2% seasonal rate to 15% in the last 14 days. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 16.3% to 19.6%. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 19.6% on the season to 35% over the last 14 days.

Starling Marte has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.