Toronto @ Baltimore Picks & Props

The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 90.7-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 86.4-mph in the last 14 days. Gunnar Henderson's launch angle lately (0.4° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit worse than his 9.8° seasonal mark. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 14.1% to 10.5%.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 3rd-deepest left field dimensions in the majors. Jose Berrios will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Westburg in today's game. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Jordan Westburg has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 2.6% over the past two weeks. Jordan Westburg's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 48.4% to 40.4%.

Batting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Bo Bichette has a tough challenge in today's game. Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Bo Bichette has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 9.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 2.3% over the last two weeks. Over the last two weeks, Bo Bichette's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 92.3 mph to 88.6 mph. In the last 14 days, Bo Bichette's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9.4°.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 3rd-deepest left field dimensions in the majors. Hitting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Ernie Clement encounters a tough challenge today. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ernie Clement in today's game. From last year to this one, Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 18.8% to 13.9%. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 45.2% on the season to 30.2% in the past two weeks.

This year, Nathan Lukes has been pinch hit for in 18% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nathan Lukes in today's game. Nathan Lukes's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.1-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 85.6-mph over the last 14 days. Over the past week, Nathan Lukes's 16.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.8%. Placing in the 15th percentile, Nathan Lukes sports a .264 BABIP this year.

Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams playing today. Jackson Holliday has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 86.5-mph over the last 7 days. In the last week's worth of games, Jackson Holliday's 21.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45%. Posting a 4.15 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Holliday has demonstrated poor plate discipline, grading out in the 17th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Davis Schneider has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 18% seasonal rate to 40% over the past week. Davis Schneider's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (33.2°) is quite a bit better than his 23.4° figure last year. Over the last 7 days, Davis Schneider's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 23%.

Batting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. meets a tough challenge in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Myles Straw has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88-mph average. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.312) may lead us to conclude that Myles Straw has suffered from bad luck this year with his .267 actual wOBA.

Hitting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, George Springer will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. George Springer will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates George Springer's true offensive ability to be a .351, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .031 deviation between that mark and his actual .382 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand today. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cedric Mullins will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Jose Berrios in today's game. Colton Cowser will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Alex Jackson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Alex Jackson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Alex Jackson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 105.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 94.4-mph.

Addison Barger is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Addison Barger will have an edge today. Addison Barger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Tyler Heineman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Tyler Heineman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (17.8° over the last 14 days) is significantly better than his 12.1° seasonal mark.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Tyler O'Neill will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Tyler O'Neill has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 17.2% seasonal rate to 45.5% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Dylan Carlson has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.5% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Wagner in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Batting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Will Wagner will have an edge in today's matchup. Will Wagner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Joey Loperfido has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty batting average. The shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best park in Major League Baseball for righty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 96°. Ali Sanchez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ali Sanchez has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 25 ft/sec to 25.47 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).