Washington @ Houston picks

The Astros are giving the ball to Jason Alexander who isn't an MLB-caliber starter. The 32-year-old has spend most of his career in the minors and was shelled for 11 hits and five runs in six innings in his last start. Houston's injury-riddled lineup has also been ice-cold, averaging just 1.6 runs per game over their last five contests. Washington is starting Michael Soroka who is in the top 25th percentile in xERA (3.26) and xBA (.217). I like the Nats as underdogs but I am wary of their terrible bullpen so let's take that out of the equation. If your book has the F5 Alternate RL of Nationals -0.5 at +130 or better bet that, otherwise the first half ML is also good. 

The Houston right-hander is lucky to get another start and if it weren't for a handful of injuries to the Astros’ rotation, Jason Alexander would be in Triple-A. He’s been pummeled for 16 runs over his last 17 innings. The lack of strikeout production is also very evident. Fourteen punchouts over his 21 innings is not a rate I want anything to do with the Over. In his two starts where he had 95+ pitches, he got four and three Ks respectively and both games came vs. one of the best K% matchups in the Athletics. THE BAT does like the Over, so the best price might be available closer to first pitch. He could go six innings and hit this, or he could have a shorter leash as a fringe rostered player. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best batter in the league when estimating his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Hitting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, James Wood will have an edge in today's matchup.. James Wood has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Wood.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best batter in the league when estimating his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Hitting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, James Wood will have an edge in today's matchup.. James Wood has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Wood.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Minute Maid Park projects as the #22 field in baseball for batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, the 3rd-tallest fences are at Minute Maid Park.. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -13° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Jason Alexander will hold that advantage in today's game.. In his last GS, Jason Alexander was on point and allowed 2 ER.

Riley Adams, the Nationals's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The shallowest left field fences in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.. Mike Soroka will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Mike Soroka's high usage percentage of his fastball (54.6% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Minute Maid Park projects as the #23 venue in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, the 3rd-tallest fences are at Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -13° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for James Wood in today's matchup.