Los Angeles @ Cincinnati picks

We're getting a big number because Great American Ballpark is a launching pad, but the Tyler Glasnow vs. Nick Lodolo pitching matchup has me looking at the Under. Glasnow has eclipsed six innings in back-to-back starts and even threw 106 pitches last time out. Meanwhile, Lodolo is coming off his first complete-game shutout and owns a 3.08 ERA over 122 2/3 innings.

Lodolo threw 105 pitches during the first shutout of his MLB career last time out, so I’m anticipating a rockier start against the Dodgers on Tuesday. Los Angeles is third in the majors in wOBA and first in walk rate against right-handed pitchers, and Lodolo has a splash of statistical correction ahead. His 3.80 xFIP and 3.71 xERA are both above his 3.08 ERA, and his .261 BABIP and 81.3% strand rate are way better than last year’s .290 and 68.2% marks.

Teoscar Hernandez is batting .328 with a .344 ISO vs. lefties this season. While Reds SP Nick Lodolo is a strong southpaw, he leans on his fastball a ton, which is a pitch Teo owns.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Teoscar Hernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Lodolo in today's game.. Teoscar Hernandez has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Tyler Stephenson has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Among all stadiums, Great American Ball Park's LF fences are the 6th-shallowest.. Andy Pages will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo today.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.

Noelvi Marte's batting average talent is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Among all stadiums, Great American Ball Park's LF fences are the 6th-shallowest.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Noelvi Marte will hold that advantage today.

Austin Hays is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Austin Hays will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Among all stadiums, Great American Ball Park's LF fences are the 6th-shallowest.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Tommy Edman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Nick Lodolo.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Matt McLain has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Matt McLain will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the league as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Tyler Glasnow in today's game.. Elly De La Cruz has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Mookie Betts ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. The #4 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Mookie Betts will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Lodolo in today's matchup.. Mookie Betts pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.