New York @ San Francisco picks

The Giants are 25th in wOBA and 26th in ISO over the past 30 days and respectively rank 22nd and 24th against righties for the campaign, so this sets up as a tough matchup for San Fran with Mets righty Kodai Senga sporting a tidy 2.60 ERA across 45 career MLB starts. New York also sports the seventh-lowest BABIP in baseball over the past 30 days and is positioned to flip the script with the Giants lined up for a bullpen game. San Francisco has lefty Matt Gage lined up to start, and righty Carson Seymour is penciled in for middle-innings work. The duo have combined for just 15 2/3 innings in the majors this season, so I’m expecting the New York lineup to do enough damage while Senga holds the Giants in check.

Oracle Park is the No. 3 park in the majors for right-handed hitting. We also expect heavy winds blowing out to center field, which increases the likelihood that one of the best power hitters in baseball can send the ball out of the park.

The righty will come into this game with a walk rate in the bottom 10% of baseball and will face a team that has great plate discipline. My projections made the number for Senga 3.2, which makes an even-money price point quite appealing.

I see value in this down to -192. In five career plate appearances, the former Boston star has never gotten a hit off Senga. In addition to that, he’s posted just a .139 expected batting average. The pitch mix that Senga throws aligns with this, as Devers struggles with the majority of them.

Matt Chapman projects as the 17th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the game.. Juan Soto is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in MLB for lefty batting average.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in MLB for lefty batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the majors.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The San Francisco Giants infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team playing today.

When estimating his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in MLB for lefty batting average.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kodai Senga is projected to throw 79 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate today.. It may be smart to expect positive regression for the San Francisco Giants offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the game.. Juan Soto is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 3rd-best field in MLB for lefty batting average.. Oracle Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.

Matt Chapman projects as the 17th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams today.