New York @ Toronto picks

The New York starter is in a big spot to win the series vs. the Jays, who are +120 home dogs despite being one of the best home teams in baseball. Max Fried might have one of the longest leashes in baseball, having gone 100-plus pitches in 50% of last 16 starts. His latest start was cut short because of a blister, but the break will have given the pitcher ample time to recover and get right. The Jays touched him three starts ago for two home runs and four total runs, but the righty still went 18 outs on 99 pitches. He’s gone Over this number in 14 of 20 starts. Buy to -135.

One is cool, but two is better. I would rather have Judge for two or more walks at +350 than Chris Bassitt Over 2.5 walks allowed at +170. Judge took two walks the last time he faced Bassitt in Toronto, and the Yankee three-hitter was intentionally walked yesterday and in the series opener on Monday. In a critical final game of the series, John Schneider could be even more cautious with Judge.
The two guys hitting in front of Judge have also done well vs. Bassitt and can get to second base today while leaving first base open. Trent Grisham has a 1.136 OPS vs. Bassitt over 13 at-bats and Cody Bellinger has an .857 OPS across 12 ABs. 

When it comes to his home run ability, Addison Barger ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league are found in Rogers Centre.. Addison Barger is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Addison Barger will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. Considering Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.. Trent Grisham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.

When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hitting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have an edge today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league are found in Rogers Centre.. Considering Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Cody Bellinger will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. George Springer is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league are found in Rogers Centre.. George Springer will have the handedness advantage over Max Fried in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league are found in Rogers Centre.. Austin Wells will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Extreme groundball hitters like Austin Wells are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.. Austin Wells has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ben Rice ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the league are found in Rogers Centre.. Considering Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Ben Rice will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.

When assessing his home run ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for LHB home runs.. Considering Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.