Milwaukee @ Seattle picks

Quinn Priester has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Brewers this year, spinning a 3.33 ERA across 94 ⅔ IP for a team tied for the most wins in the National League. The Seattle Mariners will be a tough test, especially on the road, but there’s been a lot of swing and miss in this lineup lately. They have the second-highest K rate (25.5%) against right-handed pitching since the start of July. The 24-year-old isn’t known for his punchout prowess, but he’s changed that narrative lately and has found a groove by averaging 7.5 strikeouts in his last four starts.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Christian Yelich is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Yelich is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Christian Yelich will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo in today's game... and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.. Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Christian Yelich tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Castillo.

Jackson Chourio's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Jackson Chourio has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Jackson Chourio has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.4-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 92.6-mph.. In notching a .295 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Jackson Chourio is ranked in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as Major League Baseball's 3rd-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Cal Raleigh are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Quinn Priester.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. William Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. William Contreras has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball bats like William Contreras tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Castillo.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates William Contreras's true offensive skill to be a .347, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .039 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .308 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 4th-best hitter in the game when assessing his BABIP talent.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Despite posting a .313 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Julio Rodriguez has had some very poor luck given the .044 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .357.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league.. Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.. Andrew Vaughn has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.5-mph figure.. Andrew Vaughn has been unlucky this year, compiling a .258 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .073 disparity.

Projected catcher Mitch Garver profiles as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. T-Mobile Park has the shallowest right field fences among all parks.. Due to his large platoon split, Luis Castillo has a tough challenge being matched up with 6 hitters in the projected offense of the opposite hand in this game.. Given that groundball batters hold a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Luis Castillo and his 35% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today's matchup going up against 3 opposing GB batters.. Among all SPs, Luis Castillo's fastball spin rate of 2213 rpm grades out in the 14th percentile this year.

The #1 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-best for pitching on the schedule today.. As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side against Quinn Priester today.. Out of every team in action today, the best infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitch Garver in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Mitch Garver usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Quinn Priester.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Mitch Garver will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Mitch Garver has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last year's 94.6-mph EV.

The switch-hitting Anthony Seigler will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Luis Castillo... and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.. Anthony Seigler pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.