Baltimore @ Cleveland picks

Not only is Steven Kwan hitting .301 against righties this season, but his on-base percentage goes up 61 points against them, while his slugging increases by a massive .132. All of his homers and 24 of his 32 RBI have come when he faces righties. With Orioles SP Zach Eflin returning from the IL, Kwan can have a field day.

He's coming off a season-high 108-pitch outing, as the team pushed him for a complete game following the All-Star break. Conditions won't help him much today either, with Cleveland shaping up as one of the hotter parks on the slate, which could impact stamina and efficiency. His recent workload is also worth noting: he’s thrown 105, 98, and 107 pitches over his last three starts after staying under 90 pitches in seven of his first eight outings — a clear jump in usage. Given the recent volume, there's a strong case for some regression or a tighter leash in these conditions. He’s projected for 15.75 outs on 86 pitches, and even if he pushes to 90, that still lands well short of 17 outs. This sets up well for a potential Under on outs recorded.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Tyler O'Neill as the game's 17th-best home run batter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for right-handed base hits.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Progressive Field ranks as the #3 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Slade Cecconi throws from, Cedric Mullins will have an advantage today.. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Progressive Field ranks as the #3 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Progressive Field ranks as the #3 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in the league are found in Progressive Field.. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Kyle Manzardo tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zach Eflin.

Progressive Field ranks as the #3 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Bo Naylor will have an edge today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Bo Naylor are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zach Eflin.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Progressive Field ranks as the #3 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage against Slade Cecconi today.

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Progressive Field ranks as the #3 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Westburg is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for right-handed base hits.. In the league, Progressive Field's left field fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Jordan Westburg has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 29.5° angle in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Progressive Field ranks as the #3 field in the game for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage against Slade Cecconi in today's game.

Among all stadiums, the 4th-tallest fences are at Progressive Field.. Zach Eflin was in good form in his last start and conceded 2 ER.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zach Eflin has used his secondary pitches 6% more often this year (68.7%) than he did last season (62.7%).. Given the 1.62 discrepancy between Zach Eflin's 5.95 ERA and his 4.33 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year and should positively regress in future games.. Zach Eflin has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .313 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.