Detroit @ Pittsburgh picks

Keller has been lights out in July. Across three starts this month, he owns a 1.37 ERA, cashing the Under in earned runs allowed in all of those appearances. Last time out, Keller gave up just one earned run in six frames against the Minnesota Twins.

Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller has been dealing, posting a 1.96 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP over his last six starts. He's been getting off to strong starts all year, pitching to a 2.25 ERA with an OBA of .204 in the first two innings. That said, don't expect much run support from a Buccos offense that is dead-last in the majors in OPS (.639) and runs per game (3.33). That terrible lineup will face Tigers righty Casey Mize who is coming off an ugly start against the Mariners just before the All-Star break but he was pitching to a 2.63 ERA before that outing. 

When it comes to his home run ability, Jack Suwinski ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Jack Suwinski will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jack Suwinski will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as baseball's 6th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's game.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Casey Mize.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of every team in action today.

Wenceel Perez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Wenceel Perez will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Mitch Keller today.. Wenceel Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 14.1% to 25%.. Wenceel Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 25% on the season to 28.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of every team in action today.

Gleyber Torres's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Gleyber Torres's launch angle lately (53.3° in the past week's worth of games) is significantly better than his 15.8° seasonal mark.. Based on Statcast data, Gleyber Torres is in the 93rd percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .368.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Extreme flyball batters like Spencer Torkelson usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller.. Compared to last season, Spencer Torkelson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 17.6% to 27.5% this season.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Mitch Keller's 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decline from last year's 94.5-mph figure.. With a 1.04 gap between Mitch Keller's 3.48 ERA and his 4.52 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and should see worse results in future games.. Mitch Keller has posted an 8.3% Swinging Strike% this year, placing in the 13th percentile.. The 10.1% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers grades them out as the #7 group of hitters in the game this year by this standard.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage today.. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck this year. His .248 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .305.

When it comes to his home run ability, Jack Suwinski ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of all games today at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Jack Suwinski will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jack Suwinski will hold that advantage today.