Detroit @ Pittsburgh picks

It's Paul Skenes day, so the ace can generally be counted upon to do his thing, as he's allowed more than two earned runs in just three of his 20 starts. No team has scored fewer runs than the Pirates, either, making this an easy Under to target even at a precarious number.

The former first overall pick has his work cut out for him tonight against a strong Tigers lineup. However, despite their brilliance, Detroit has the fifth-most team strikeouts this season. That certainly plays in Skenes’ favor. Although he’s only cashed the Over in punchouts in two of his last five appearances, Skenes has 15 strikeouts in just 32 at-bats against this Tigers lineup. He was dominant in the ASG last week, and this is his first start in the second half. Skenes will come in fresh, and he also struck out nine Tigers in June. 

Scott Barry profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone today.. The #6 ballpark in the majors for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Paul Skenes's fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (97.5 mph) below where it was last year (98.9 mph).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 6th-best hitter in MLB when estimating his BABIP talent.. Riley Greene is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Riley Greene will have the upper hand in today's game.. Riley Greene's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (30.7° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 19.8° seasonal angle.

When it comes to his home run talent, Jack Suwinski ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Jack Suwinski will have an edge in today's game.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jack Suwinski will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Jack Suwinski has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 9% rate last season to 14.3% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as baseball's 6th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Jack Flaherty today.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Jack Flaherty.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Bryan Reynolds will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Wenceel Perez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The switch-hitting Wenceel Perez will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Paul Skenes.. Wenceel Perez's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (11.3° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is a considerable dropoff from his 15.5° seasonal figure.. Wenceel Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 14.1% to 24.1%.. Wenceel Perez has put up a .310 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Extreme flyball hitters like Spencer Torkelson are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Paul Skenes.. Spencer Torkelson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 17.6% to 27.7%.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Henry Davis will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck this year. His .251 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .303.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Henry Davis ranks in the 95th percentile with a 23.2° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the league.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as baseball's 6th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Jack Flaherty today.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage today.