San Diego @ Miami picks

The Padres haven't officially named a starter yet, but the Marlins are turning to electric right-hander Eury Perez, who has allowed one earned run across his last three starts (18 innings). Miami's lineup is a bottom-third offense, so I'm not worried about San Diego's SP situation as it pertains to the Under.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eury Perez to throw 82 pitches in this matchup (9th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The San Diego Padres (18.6 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.. Adrian Johnson projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone today.. Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Eury Perez has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.7% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 42% to 47.3%.. In notching a .272 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Xander Bogaerts has performed in the 79th percentile.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand in today's game.. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Gavin Sheets has experienced some negative variance this year. His .326 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 80th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez has big-time HR ability (80th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez doesn't generate many whiffs (8th percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Heriberto Hernandez will hold that advantage today.. Heriberto Hernandez is notably athletic, grading out in the 82nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.47 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's game.. In the past week, Jake Cronenworth's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.1%.. Jake Cronenworth has shown good plate discipline this year, placing in the 86th percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate.

Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Eric Wagaman will hold that advantage today.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (14.0) suggests that Eric Wagaman has had some very poor luck this year with his 8.4 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Manny Machado has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.5% seasonal rate to 20.7% in the last two weeks.. Manny Machado has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.6-mph to 98.3-mph in the past 14 days.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Fernando Tatis Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.. Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.6-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 96.7-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage over Randy Vasquez in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. There has been a significant improvement in Jesus Sanchez's launch angle from last season's 7.7° to 11° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Kyle Stowers will have the handedness advantage against Randy Vasquez today.. Kyle Stowers has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez is a pitch-to-contact type (13th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Stowers will hold that advantage today.