Boston @ Chicago picks

Imanaga has a sparkling 2.65 ERA but there are several reasons to fade him here. The Red Sox are red-hot at the plate, ranking second in the majors in OPS (.818) and runs per game (5.83) over the last 30 days. They also excel against lefties, batting an MLB-high .272. Another factor to consider is that Imanaga's underlying metrics are poor. His xERA is at 3.81 and he's in the bottom 25th percentile in average exit velocity and barrel rate. He's also in the bottom 3% in ground ball rate which could lead to trouble with the wind blowing out at Wrigley on a hot and humid night. Keep in mind that Imanaga has struggled at home, pitching to a 4.61 ERA and despite how productive he's been, he's logged fewer than 17.5 outs in eight of 12 starts. 

Imanaga arguably had his best start of the season last weekend when he allowed just two hits and one earned run over seven innings against the Yankees. The southpaw threw 91 pitches in that game – the first time he’s hit the 90-pitch mark since April 22 and just the fourth time he’s done so in 12 starts. But low pitch counts are a common theme for the Japanese star. He averaged just 89 pitches per game last season and is hovering around 85 this year. Going hand in hand with that low pitch count, Imanaga has also recorded Under 17.5 outs in eight of his 12 appearances this season. Boston is averaging 4.97 runs per game – the fifth-best mark in the majors – and won 10 straight to finish off the first half. Expect Boston’s batters to give the Cubs starter some problems and get him out of the game before the end of the sixth.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 9th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello today... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Romy Gonzalez will have the handedness advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split.. Michael Busch will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The 4th-shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Bats such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The 4th-shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Alex Bregman will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga today.

Carson Kelly is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 4th-shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-most humidity of all games on the slate today at 76%.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. The 4th-shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games today.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Brayan Bello... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.