Philadelphia @ San Diego picks

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 51-39 to the Under with the San Diego Padres one better at 52-38 so far this season. Those trends should continue on Friday night as we get a good pitching matchup between Ranger Suárez (7-2, 1.99 ERA) and Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.67 ERA).

The Phillies are giving the ball to Ranger Suarez who has a sizzling 1.99 ERA through 12 starts. The southpaw faces a Padres lineup that has an OPS of just .662 over the last 30 days and has struggled to hit lefties all year. Meanwhile, the Phillies have an OPS of .693 on the road and they'll be at pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight. They'll be up against rookie Ryan Bergert. In five starts, Bergert hasn't allowed a single run in the first inning while holding opponents to an OBA of just .063. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's matchup.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today's game.

The #5 venue in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Batting from the same side that Omar Cruz throws from, Max Kepler meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Max Kepler has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.2% rate last season to 12.6% this year.. Max Kepler has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 88.8-mph figure.

Manny Machado's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Petco Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Manny Machado will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Alec Bohm has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph mark.. Alec Bohm has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 26.25 ft/sec to 26.7 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #5 venue in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.. Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Petco Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (14.2) implies that J.T. Realmuto has had bad variance on his side this year with his 9.6 actual HR/600.. J.T. Realmuto has recorded a .331 BABIP this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Nick Castellanos is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Last year, Nick Castellanos had an average launch angle of 13.9° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17°.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The #5 venue in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the same side that Omar Cruz throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have a tough challenge today.

Bryce Harper projects as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #5 venue in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 4th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.