Philadelphia @ San Diego Picks & Props

Elias Diaz will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's game. Elias Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Elias Diaz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. This season, Elias Diaz has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91.3 mph compared to last year's 88.3 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 4th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for righty batting average. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which generally leads to worse offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for pitching of the day. Trea Turner will hold the platoon advantage over Omar Cruz in today's matchup. Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have an edge in today's game. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batting from the same side that Omar Cruz throws from, Max Kepler meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. Max Kepler has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.2% rate last season to 12.6% this year. Max Kepler has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 88.8-mph figure. Max Kepler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 13.8% to 17.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.332) implies that Max Kepler has had bad variance on his side this year with his .302 actual wOBA.

Bryson Stott's batting average skill is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest. Omar Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Bryson Stott today. Compared to last year, Bryson Stott has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.2% to 20.2% this season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.310) suggests that Bryson Stott has had some very poor luck this year with his .291 actual wOBA.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Gavin Sheets will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph average. In notching a .340 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Gavin Sheets is positioned in the 78th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jose Iglesias will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's game. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Iglesias's true offensive ability to be a .281, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .032 deviation between that mark and his actual .249 wOBA.

Manny Machado's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Manny Machado will have an advantage today. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Alec Bohm has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph mark. Alec Bohm has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 26.25 ft/sec to 26.7 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Alec Bohm has put up a .284 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today. Jake Cronenworth's speed has increased this year. His 27.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.29 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today's game. Jackson Merrill has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite well of late, notching a 26.6° angle on such balls over the past week.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates J.T. Realmuto's true offensive talent to be a .328, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .026 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .302 wOBA. J.T. Realmuto has recorded a .331 BABIP this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the same side that Omar Cruz throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have a tough challenge today. Last year, Kyle Schwarber had an average launch angle of 13.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.3°. Kyle Schwarber's 18.1% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 96th percentile this year.

Petco Park ranks as the #23 stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which generally leads to worse offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most favorable for pitching of the day. Hitting from the same side that Ranger Suarez throws from, Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped to 85.6-mph.

Bryce Harper projects as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest. Omar Cruz will have the handedness advantage against Bryce Harper in today's game. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 13.3% to 19.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 5th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP skill. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest. Omar Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Marsh in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh's 91.2-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the league this year: 78th percentile. In notching a .343 BABIP this year, Brandon Marsh is positioned in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Nick Castellanos is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. In MLB, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest. Last year, Nick Castellanos had an average launch angle of 13.9° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17°. Nick Castellanos has posted a .339 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 77th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Martin Maldonado has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.