Seattle @ New York picks

Seattle right-hander Bryan Woo heads to the Bronx boasting four straight quality starts. Meanwhile, 34‑year‑old Marcus Stroman has struggled with a 7.45 ERA through five outings for New York. Take the Mariners to pick up the road win at Yankee Stadium.

The reigning AL MVP is batting .429 this month with four long balls in just eight games. He’s left the ballpark in three of his last five appearances and just had homers in back-to-back contests earlier in the week.

J.P. Crawford has been a hit machine against righties all season. He is sporting a .317 average and .401 OBP, living on the basepaths each night. That should continue Thursday against Marcus Stroman, who owns a 7.45 ERA through nearly 20 innings of work.

Bryan Woo is an efficient pitcher and has hit the Over 17.5 outs in all 17 of his starts this year. He can get deep and keep that pitch count low thanks to great command but that creates a lot of hit ball-in-play opportunities. On the road, he is close to a hit/inning pitcher and the Seattle starter is paying plus money for more than five hits allowed to an offense that is hitting .309 over the last seven days. There is plenty of room to get hit in this game. Yankee Stadium is not T-Mobile. 

Bryan Woo has an Aaron Judge problem. There aren’t many cracks in Woo’s game, but the spots where he is vulnerable are the spots that Judge excels. Woo has a barrel rate in the bottom 30th percentile of baseball; we know all about Judge’s exploits in this regard. In addition to that, Woo is primarily a two-pitch thrower, with the fastball and sinker making up nearly 70% of his arsenal. Judge leads the New York Yankees in batting average, wOBA, slugging, and hard-hit rate against both of those pitchers. Today is a good base for a pitcher to see a bad matchup. I’d play this down to my fair price of -133. 

It is expected that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Nic Lentz) behind the plate in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Yankee Stadium as the 9th-worst park in baseball for strikeouts.. Given his large platoon split, Bryan Woo has a tough challenge being matched up with 7 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in this matchup.. Bryan Woo will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Trent Grisham is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 10th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his batting average ability.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, compiling a .304 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .356 — a .052 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as the majors's 4th-best home run hitter.. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Cal Raleigh tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Marcus Stroman.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. may have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Among all the teams today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's game.

The New York Yankees projected lineup profiles as the strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.. It is expected that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Nic Lentz) behind the plate in today's game.. Yankee Stadium grades out as the #5 park in the majors for walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Given his large platoon split, Bryan Woo has a tough challenge being matched up with 7 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. may have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage over Bryan Woo today... and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.. Ben Rice will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.. Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. In the majors, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Trent Grisham is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.