Pittsburgh @ Kansas City picks

The Royals are dead-last in the majors in OPS at home (.644). Meanwhile, the Pirates have an OPS of just .582 on the road —  the lowest number this century. Both teams also have a pair of effective pitchers on the hill. KC righty Seth Lugo has pitched to a 2.65 ERA with an OBA of .216 in 16 starts. Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller has looked very sharp lately, posting a 3.08 ERA with a 2.92 FIP in his last 10 starts.

Seth Lugo has allowed fewer than 5.5 hits in 13 of 16 starts this year. The Royals righty has pitched to a sparkling 2.65 ERA with an OBA of .216. He's fresh off a strong outing on the road in Seattle, and he returns home to Kauffman Stadium for today's game against the Pirates. The Buccos are dead-last in the majors in OPS (.642), with that number dropping to an atrocious .582 on the road.

Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitters such as Tommy Pham with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Seth Lugo who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Despite posting a .273 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tommy Pham has had some very poor luck given the .034 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Seth Lugo.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 10th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Extreme flyball bats like Bobby Witt Jr. tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Andrew McCutchen has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last season's 93-mph EV.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's matchup.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's matchup.

Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitters such as Tommy Pham with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Seth Lugo who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Despite posting a .273 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tommy Pham has had some very poor luck given the .034 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting of all games today.. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Over the past week, Spencer Horwitz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Seth Lugo.