Arizona @ San Diego picks

The 36-year-old Kelly has been inconsistent in 2025. So, ranking in the 45th percentile in xERA and the 41st in xBA feels about right. His leash for a start sits around 90 pitches, and he got to that number quickly the last time he faced the Padres back on June 15 where he got tagged for four runs on seven hits while lasting just five innings. Expect a similar result tonight.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Petco Park grades out as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Petco Park grades out as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s launch angle of late (24.3° in the past week) is a significant increase over his 15.7° seasonal angle.

As it relates to his home run talent, Randal Grichuk ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Petco Park grades out as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Randal Grichuk hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Randal Grichuk has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13% seasonal rate to 30% in the past 7 days.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Petco Park grades out as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.

Ketel Marte projects as the 11th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Petco Park projects as the #5 ballpark in the league for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Ketel Marte has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 17.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. Petco Park grades out as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Petco Park grades out as the #5 park in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the shallowest CF dimensions among all major league parks.. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Elias Diaz will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Elias Diaz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph mark.

Ketel Marte projects as the 11th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Petco Park projects as the #5 ballpark in the league for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Ketel Marte has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 17.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.

Ketel Marte projects as the 11th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Petco Park projects as the #5 ballpark in the league for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the 4th-shortest average fence height in MLB.. Ketel Marte has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 17.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.

The weather forecast projects the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers.. Nick Pivetta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eugenio Suarez in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.. Eugenio Suarez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.