Pittsburgh @ Seattle Picks & Props

The #1 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to less offense. The weather forecast forecasts the most suitable pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today. Julio Rodriguez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 14.6% on the season to 6.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Cole Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Cole Young will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Cole Young's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.6% up to 11.1%. Cole Young has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.3-mph average. Cole Young's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, going from 15.5% on the season to 27.8% in the last week's worth of games.

Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Henry Davis has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 27.73 ft/sec to 28.21 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Henry Davis has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .263 figure is deflated compared to his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Henry Davis ranks in the 94th percentile with a 21.3° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the league.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Oneil Cruz will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Ke'Bryan Hayes has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Ke'Bryan Hayes tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo. In the past week's worth of games, Ke'Bryan Hayes's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.9-mph over the course of the season to 95.5-mph recently. Ke'Bryan Hayes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 7.5% to 10.8%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. J.P. Crawford has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage in today's game. Using Statcast metrics, J.P. Crawford is in the 79th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .277.

Spencer Horwitz is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Given Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Spencer Horwitz will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Spencer Horwitz stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Spencer Horwitz has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Spencer Horwitz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal average of 93.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo. Sporting a .326 BABIP this year, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is positioned in the 79th percentile.

Tommy Pham has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo. In the last 7 days, Tommy Pham's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph of late. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Pham's true offensive skill to be a .307, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .037 difference between that mark and his actual .270 wOBA.

Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Dylan Moore will have an advantage in today's game. Dylan Moore pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Dylan Moore will hold that advantage in today's game. Dylan Moore's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 18% to 23.7%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past week, Andrew McCutchen's 75% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Bryan Woo) in this game. Bryan Reynolds has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 95.1-mph over the last two weeks.

Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Adam Frazier will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Adam Frazier may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP. Adam Frazier has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Adam Frazier has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph to 90.4-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Adam Frazier's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 47.3% on the season to 73.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Benjamin Williamson will have an edge in today's game. Benjamin Williamson has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball batters like Benjamin Williamson tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Falter. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Benjamin Williamson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jorge Polanco is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jorge Polanco will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past 14 days, Jorge Polanco's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.5-mph over the course of the season to 101.7-mph of late. In terms of his batting average, Jorge Polanco has had bad variance on his side this year. His .253 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .273.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Joey Bart pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Joey Bart's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 43.1% to 52%. Over the last 7 days, Joey Bart's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 52%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.327) implies that Joey Bart has been unlucky this year with his .298 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Bailey Falter. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Cal Raleigh will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Randy Arozarena will have an advantage today. Randy Arozarena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Donovan Solano is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB. Donovan Solano will hold the platoon advantage over Bailey Falter in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Donovan Solano will hold that advantage today.

Batting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Mitch Garver will have an advantage in today's game. Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Mitch Garver will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. This season, Mitch Garver has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.1 mph compared to last year's 94.6 mph mark. In the past 7 days, Mitch Garver's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.1-mph over the course of the season to 108.7-mph lately.

Miles Mastrobuoni has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.