Pittsburgh @ Seattle picks
T-Mobile Park
PIT vs SEA Picks
MLB Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Bryan Woo o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+122)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
o6.5 +110
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o6.5 +122
o6.5 +125
o6.5 +120
o5.5 -159
Although Woo doesn’t usually strike out a ton of hitters each outing, he’s on a heater at the moment. The right-hander has racked up nine punchouts in each of his last two appearances against the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins, respectively. There’s reason to believe he could keep it rolling today. The M’s face the Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank in the top 10 in the big leagues in most strikeouts. He’s also pitching at home here, where Woo has a 2.08 ERA, racking up 33 Ks in 39 frames.
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 +215
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-
o0.5 +225
o0.5 +213
o0.5 +215
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Bryan Woo) in this game.. Bryan Reynolds has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 95.1-mph over the last two weeks.
Total RBIs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 +120
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-
o0.5 +125
o0.5 +126
o0.5 +118
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as baseball's 4th-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Bailey Falter.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 +195
-
-
o0.5 +200
o0.5 +196
o0.5 +190
Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB.. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Oneil Cruz will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Total RBIs
Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 +170
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-
o0.5 +175
o0.5 +165
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When assessing his BABIP ability, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB.. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Falter throws from, Julio Rodriguez will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+120)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +115
-
-
o1.5 +120
o1.5 +112
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Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB.. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Oneil Cruz will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Henry Davis o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 -140
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-
o0.5 -120
o0.5 -133
-
Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Henry Davis has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 27.73 ft/sec to 28.21 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.1) suggests that Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his 11.9 actual HR/600.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Henry Davis ranks in the 94th percentile with a 21.3° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the league.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Ke'Bryan Hayes o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 -170
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-
o0.5 -175
o0.5 -185
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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Ke'Bryan Hayes has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball bats like Ke'Bryan Hayes tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo.. In the past week's worth of games, Ke'Bryan Hayes's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.9-mph over the course of the season to 95.5-mph recently.. Ke'Bryan Hayes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 7.5% to 10.8%.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Tommy Pham o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 -175
-
-
o0.5 -160
o0.5 -167
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Tommy Pham has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo.. In the last 7 days, Tommy Pham's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph of late.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Pham's true offensive skill to be a .307, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .037 difference between that mark and his actual .270 wOBA.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+105)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +105
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-
o1.5 +105
o1.5 +104
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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Bryan Woo) in this game.. Bryan Reynolds has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 95.1-mph over the last two weeks.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-125)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 -140
-
-
o1.5 -125
o1.5 -128
-
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as baseball's 4th-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Bailey Falter.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.
