New York @ New York picks

Soto hit .322 in June with 11 home runs and 20 RBIs. Ridiculous numbers considering he had just 90 at-bats. He’s up to 48 RBIs on the year, and the slugger will have a chance at another revenge game this afternoon in the Subway Series against the New York Mets. Soto has an impressive track record against Marcus Stroman, who the Yanks send to the mound in the series opener. He’s 3 for 10 lifetime with three RBIs.

Soto boasts an elite .410 wOBA .275 ISO and .969 OPS against righties over the past three years and lands in a cushy matchup against Yankees veteran Marcus Stroman on Friday. Stroman sports a 4.96 ERA against left-handed hitters while allowing a healthy .369 wOBA and .853 OPS, and Soto is also scorching hot with respective .485 and 1.154 marks across his past 25 games.

While the spot and motivational angle drove me to this Marcus Stroman wager, there's supporting data to make the bet actionable. The biggest of those reasons is twofold: expected positive regression (the expected ERA is three runs lower than the actual ERA) and inducing ground balls. Inducing the ground ball has been the one thing that Stroman has done at an elite level this season at a 47% clip. He can lean on it here against a Mets group with the highest ground ball rate in the majors at 46.8%. In other words, if there was a spot for Stroman to excel, this is it.

When it comes to his home run ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Paul Blackburn throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Paul Blackburn throws from, Trent Grisham will have an advantage in today's game.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trent Grisham has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Trent Grisham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 16th-best batter in MLB.. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the worst among every team on the slate today.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Giancarlo Stanton as the majors's 5th-best home run batter.. Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Giancarlo Stanton pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Marcus Stroman throws from, Juan Soto will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Paul Blackburn throws from, Trent Grisham will have an advantage in today's game.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trent Grisham has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Paul Blackburn throws from, Cody Bellinger will have the upper hand today.

When it comes to his home run ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Paul Blackburn throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Jasson Dominguez's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jasson Dominguez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.. In the league, Citi Field's centerfield dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Jasson Dominguez will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Paul Blackburn today.