Cleveland @ Chicago picks

The Guardians are reeling along a 7-15 stretch with an MLB low .265 wOBA and .123 ISO, and the club ranks 29th and 28th in the two metrics for the year against left-handed pitchers. As a result, I’m confident Chicago southpaw Matthew Boyd (2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP) can navigate his way through the Cleveland lineup efficiently enough for the Chicago bats to put numbers on the board. The North Siders are also 25-15 at home and sport a third-ranked wOBA and fourth-ranked ISO against right-handed pitchers, after all.

As it relates to his home run skill, Lane Thomas ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Lane Thomas is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to more offense.. Lane Thomas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's game.. Lane Thomas pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The 6th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. Extreme flyball bats like Seiya Suzuki usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Gavin Williams.. Seiya Suzuki will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The 6th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Over the past 14 days, Carson Kelly's 58.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44%.. Based on Statcast metrics, Carson Kelly ranks in the 87th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .355.. Carson Kelly has put up a .363 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The 6th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today's game.. Checking in at the 77th percentile for power, Dansby Swanson has averaged 25.3 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Kyle Tucker will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Gavin Williams.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to more offense.. Austin Hedges will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd in today's game.. Austin Hedges pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Austin Hedges has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last year's 88.4-mph figure.. Austin Hedges's 24.6° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in the majors: 97th percentile.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to more offense.. Bo Naylor's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (22.6°) is considerably higher than his 17.5° figure last year.. Bo Naylor's quickness has improved this year. His 26.57 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.15 ft/sec now.. When it comes to his batting average, Bo Naylor has suffered from bad luck this year. His .168 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .202.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johnathan Rodriguez in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. The 6th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Wrigley Field.. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Johnathan Rodriguez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Johnathan Rodriguez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Matthew Boyd.. Johnathan Rodriguez's speed has increased this season. His 26.82 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.31 ft/sec now.

David Fry is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to more offense.. David Fry will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup.. David Fry pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. David Fry has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph average.

The Cleveland Guardians have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games. Nic Lentz projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be umping in this game.. With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Matthew Boyd encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.. Given the 1.3 gap between Matthew Boyd's 2.65 ERA and his 3.95 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to negatively regress the rest of the season.