Colorado @ Milwaukee picks
American Family Field
COL vs MIL Picks
MLB Picks
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Sam Hilliard o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks.. American Family Field has the 5th-lowest fences among all parks.. Sam Hilliard will have the handedness advantage against Quinn Priester in today's game.. Sam Hilliard has big-time power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (32.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Quinn Priester is a pitch-to-contact type (4th percentile K%) — great news for Hilliard.. Sam Hilliard's launch angle recently (26° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is significantly better than his 16.6° seasonal mark.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Mickey Moniak o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+125)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field has the 5th-lowest fences among all parks.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in MLB, which tends to lead to more offense.. Mickey Moniak will have the handedness advantage over Quinn Priester today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Michael Toglia o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
American Family Field has the 5th-lowest fences among all parks.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in MLB, which tends to lead to more offense.. Michael Toglia has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (33.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Quinn Priester is a pitch-to-contact type (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Toglia.. Michael Toglia's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 43.1% to 50.7%.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ryan Ritter o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Ritter in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks.. American Family Field has the 5th-lowest fences among all parks.. Ryan Ritter's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 44.1% on the season to 50% in the past week.
Total Bases

Rhys Hoskins o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks.. American Family Field has the 5th-lowest fences among all parks.. Extreme flyball batters like Rhys Hoskins are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Antonio Senzatela.. Rhys Hoskins will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.. In the past 14 days, Rhys Hoskins has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 28.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 21.8°.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Sal Frelick u2.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 1.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run talent, Sal Frelick ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #1 park in the majors for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Extreme groundball hitters like Sal Frelick are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Antonio Senzatela.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.265) may lead us to conclude that Sal Frelick has had some very good luck this year with his .299 actual batting average.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Ryan McMahon o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+120)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run skill, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan McMahon is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks.. American Family Field has the 5th-lowest fences among all parks.. Ryan McMahon will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Quinn Priester today.