Minnesota @ Detroit picks
Comerica Park
MIN vs DET Picks
MLB Picks
Total

Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Minnesota has eclipsed a total of 8.5 runs in seven of its last eight games, allowing 7.25 runs per contest through that span. The Tigers, meanwhile, own the fifth-best offense in the majors (5.00 runs per game) and have been even hotter over the last 15 days, averaging 6.25 runs per game.
Total RBIs

Matt Wallner o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Matt Wallner projects as the 10th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Wallner is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity on the slate today (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Matt Wallner will have the handedness advantage over Sawyer Gipson-Long in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sawyer Gipson-Long.
Total RBIs

Kerry Carpenter o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his home run ability, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kerry Carpenter is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hitting from the opposite that David Festa throws from, Kerry Carpenter will have an edge in today's matchup.. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.
Total RBIs

Trevor Larnach o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hitting from the opposite that Sawyer Gipson-Long throws from, Trevor Larnach will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the worst out of all the teams today.
Total RBIs

Willi Castro o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The switch-hitting Willi Castro will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Sawyer Gipson-Long.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the worst out of all the teams today.
Total RBIs

Kody Clemens o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kody Clemens will hold the platoon advantage over Sawyer Gipson-Long in today's matchup.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the worst out of all the teams today.. Kody Clemens has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last year's 93.8-mph mark.. Kody Clemens's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 16.8% on the season to 26.7% over the past two weeks.
Total RBIs

Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 3rd-best batter in the league as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Riley Greene will hold the platoon advantage over David Festa in today's game.. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.
Total RBIs

Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the worst out of all the teams today.. Ryan Jeffers has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.1-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph figure.. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 37.5% to 47.7%.. Ryan Jeffers has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .329 figure is deflated compared to his .357 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Matt Wallner o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Matt Wallner projects as the 10th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Wallner is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Matt Wallner will have the handedness advantage over Sawyer Gipson-Long in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sawyer Gipson-Long.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Trevor Larnach o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+105)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hitting from the opposite that Sawyer Gipson-Long throws from, Trevor Larnach will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the worst out of all the teams today.
Total Bases

Wenceel Perez o0.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Wenceel Perez will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against David Festa in today's matchup.. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Wenceel Perez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Wenceel Perez has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 4.4% rate last year to 13.9% this season.