Toronto @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
TOR vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Total Home Runs


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
He’s 10-for-21 lifetime with three home runs off the Toronto Blue Jays starter. Additionally, every one of Duran’s bombs has been off right-handed hurlers, and he’s batting .294 at home. Expect Duran to make some noise in front of the Fenway faithful tonight.
Total RBIs

Roman Anthony o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Roman Anthony will have the upper hand today.. Roman Anthony has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like Roman Anthony tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios.
Total RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.6% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. In the last week's worth of games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.2%.
Total RBIs

Addison Barger o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run ability, Addison Barger ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Addison Barger is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Addison Barger will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello today... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.. Addison Barger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Addison Barger has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.8% rate last season to 14.9% this year.
Total RBIs

Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 94th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's matchup.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Wilyer Abreu will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Roman Anthony o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+105)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Roman Anthony will have the upper hand today.. Roman Anthony has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like Roman Anthony tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios.
Outs Recorded

Jose Berrios u17.5 Outs Recorded (+122)
Projection 17 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Shane Livensparger projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be umping in today's game.. The Boston Red Sox have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Jose Berrios in today's game.. Jose Berrios will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. The 10.3% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox makes them the #5 group of hitters in MLB this year by this standard.. Boston Red Sox bats collectively have been among the best in the league this year () when assessing their 90.6-mph average exit velocity.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 2.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.6% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. In the last week's worth of games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.2%.
Total Bases

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.6% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. In the last week's worth of games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.2%.
Total Bases

Abraham Toro o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Abraham Toro is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Abraham Toro will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. There has been a significant improvement in Abraham Toro's launch angle from last year's 12.1° to 15.6° this season.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Abraham Toro has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 10.1°.. Grading out in the 78th percentile, Abraham Toro has posted a .463 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.