Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bo Bichette in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bo Bichette in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal angle of 8.9°, Bo Bichette has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.4°) over the past 14 days.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays. Jarren Duran's launch angle lately (5.8° in the past week) is considerably lower than his 11.3° seasonal angle. Jarren Duran's speed has declined this season. His 29.6 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.14 ft/sec now. Jarren Duran has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 18th percentile with a 4.05 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, Roman Anthony will have the upper hand today. Roman Anthony has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball batters like Roman Anthony tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alejandro Kirk today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alejandro Kirk in today's game. Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.9°, Alejandro Kirk has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.6°) over the past two weeks.

When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.6% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games. In the last week's worth of games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.2%.

Alan Roden's batting average talent is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alan Roden will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. Alan Roden has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

Jonatan Clase's BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jonatan Clase pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. George Springer is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. George Springer has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.3% rate last year to 18.2% this year. Compared to last season, George Springer has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.1% to 21.6% this season. George Springer's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 21.6% on the season to 29% in the past 14 days.

Abraham Toro is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Abraham Toro will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Abraham Toro's launch angle from last year's 12.1° to 15.6° this season. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Abraham Toro has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 10.1°. Abraham Toro has compiled a .282 batting average this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.

Marcelo Mayer has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (45%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Myles Straw's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 45.6% on the season to 66.7% in the last week. Myles Straw has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .272 BA is a fair amount lower than his .291 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Myles Straw has put up a .276 batting average this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Connor Wong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Connor Wong has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .205 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .272 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Connor Wong has compiled a .323 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 86th percentile.

Addison Barger is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Addison Barger will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello today... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Addison Barger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Addison Barger has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.8% rate last season to 14.9% this year. In the last 7 days, Addison Barger's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.9% up to 28.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Andres Gimenez will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Andres Gimenez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 13.8% to 17.3%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.254) implies that Andres Gimenez has experienced some negative variance this year with his .189 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Ernie Clement pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Ernie Clement has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.4-mph average to last season's 85.3-mph average. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 41.6% to 47.3%. Sporting a .308 batting average this year, Ernie Clement is positioned in the 96th percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Jose Berrios throws from, David Hamilton will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage in today's matchup. David Hamilton has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 4% seasonal rate to 10% over the past week. David Hamilton's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, rising from 12% on the season to 23.5% in the last two weeks. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates David Hamilton's true offensive talent to be a .277, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .059 difference between that figure and his actual .218 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Nathan Lukes will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Nathan Lukes has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. When it comes to his batting average, Nathan Lukes has been unlucky this year. His .259 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .286. Posting a 1.12 K/BB rate this year, Nathan Lukes has shown strong plate discipline, ranking in the 96th percentile.

Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Trevor Story will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Trevor Story has been unlucky this year, posting a .279 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .027 gap.

Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Carlos Narvaez will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.2°, Carlos Narvaez has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 20.3° figure in the last two weeks' worth of games. Carlos Narvaez has notched a .347 BABIP this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Berrios in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Wilyer Abreu will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last year's 86.6-mph mark. Compared to last year, Ceddanne Rafaela has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.5% to 20.3% this season.