Los Angeles @ Kansas City picks

Anticipating offense in a Kansas City Royals game is usually a foolhardy idea. They’re on a tremendous run to the Under, going below the total in 46 of their last 73 games. Part of the reason they enter this series on a five-game losing streak is that the lineup has been lost at the plate, scoring just four total runs in that span. All five games have gone Under the total. Dustin May gets the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has to be licking his chops against a Kansas City lineup ranking dead last in wRC+ (52) and wOBA (.250) against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days.

May has thrown at least five innings in all 14 starts this season and racked up at least four strikeouts 10 times. The consistent workload is the foundation for this nod, and the Royals ranking 28th in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed arms is the icing on the cake. While Kansas City boasting the second-lowest strikeout percentage against righties in the majors is a surface concern, we’re also landing a low total for May. He has traded at a 4.5 or 5.5 strikeout total in 13 of his 14 starts, and the last time he was all the way down at 3.5 was his first outing of the year on April 1.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Last year, Shohei Ohtani had an average launch angle of 15.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 19.5°.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Jac Caglianone will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dustin May today... and the cherry on top, May has a huge platoon split.. Jac Caglianone will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jac Caglianone has had bad variance on his side this year. His .236 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .352.

When estimating his BABIP skill, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the handedness advantage against Noah Cameron today.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 9th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball batters like Bobby Witt Jr. are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Dustin May.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Muncy in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. In the past week, Max Muncy's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.8% up to 21.4%.. Max Muncy's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 19.6% on the season to 28.6% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Mookie Betts is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Noah Cameron throws from, Mookie Betts will have the upper hand in today's game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Dustin May (45.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Kansas City's projected offense.. Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Dustin May today.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Last year, Shohei Ohtani had an average launch angle of 15.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 19.5°.

Shohei Ohtani projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Last year, Shohei Ohtani had an average launch angle of 15.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 19.5°.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 88°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Noah Cameron throws from, Enrique Hernandez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Enrique Hernandez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last season's 90.1-mph average.. Enrique Hernandez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (19.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 7.7° figure last season.