Dodgers vs Royals Picks, Prediction & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

It’ll be a warm day at Kauffman Stadium, with temperatures in the upper 80's and winds of 5 to 6 mph blowing out to left field. Naturally, the books are expecting runs in bunches and have set the total up at 9.5.

Not so fast, my friend.

Anticipating offense in a Kansas City Royals game is usually a foolhardy idea. They’re on a tremendous run to the Under, going below the total in 46 of their last 73 games.

Part of the reason they enter this series on a five-game losing streak is that the lineup has been lost at the plate, scoring just four total runs in that span. All five games have gone Under the total.

Dustin May gets the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has to be licking his chops against a Kansas City lineup ranking dead last in wRC+ (52) and wOBA (.250) against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days.

His pitching counterpart will be Noah Cameron. The rookie sensation has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his eight starts in the Big Leagues en route to a 2.08 ERA.

While he’s bound to regress due to an unsustainable .205 BABIP and 86.6% left-on-base percentage, the southpaw likely won’t fall off a cliff considering his impressive 3.30 xERA and .229 xBA. The Central Arkansas product has induced soft contact with a 5.1% barrel rate that ranks in the 89th percentile.

The Dodgers are a tough test, but they’re generally not as fearsome against left-handers. They have an 11-11 record against lefty starters, which is a far cry from their 40-20 record against righties.

Behind Cameron is a solid Kansas City bullpen that has a 3.05 ERA across the last 15 days, and it will be well-rested with only one reliever having thrown over 30 pitches in the last three days.

The Royals have hit the First Five Innings moneyline in just four of their last 24 home games, resulting in an auto-fade, especially against a team as good as the Dodgers, who have won six of their last seven away games.

The Royals are in the midst of a slump, losing five consecutive games to fall 3.5 games back of the last AL Wild Card spot. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have won 10 of their last 12.

Dustin May has recorded 4+ strikeouts in three of his last five outings and stands to benefit from Kansas City’s prolonged drought at the dish against right-handers.